An establishment candidate was always going to emerge, eventually, from the Byzantine confusion of the ANC’s leadership fight. It was only a question of when — and, of course, who. The new South African establishment, just like any establishment, requires the reassurance that its interests will be served at the apex of government.
Tokyo Sexwale may prove not to be the last word on the subject; it is still entirely plausible that someone else will appear from the smoke and mirrors that constitute the unwritten lore of the ANC’s culture of leadership selection. I can think of three very obvious potential candidates whose credentials match or better those of Sexwale. One has the initials “CR” and the other two “TM” (and neither is the current president).
But let us not go there right now. Let us rather ponder the notion of President Sexwale. Is he really the Camelot candidate, as Xolela Mangcu enthusiastically suggested last week?
For the establishment, Sexwale certainly ticks many boxes: an accomplished communicator; urbane and worldly; comfortable with the corporate sector — very much “one of us” (now). Yet with impeccable ANC struggle credentials.
But is he too slick? Too self-promoting? His detractors suggest that Tokyo Sexwale is better suited to the role of court jester than King Arthur.
In any case, it might be a mistake to think that Sexwale is non-intellectual, all spin and suave good looks. A few years back, he unobtrusively funded, out of his own pocket, the not inconsiderable costs of a research project to be conducted by two young members of the SACP (one of whom is now an ANC MP), which involved them touring the world looking for the best examples of socialism in practice. No great personal political advantage could be had from this; it was simply that he was interested to see what would emerge (the book is not far off, I am told).
His proponents say that he is loyal to the ANC’s great traditions, prompting in response the acid question from his critics: where on earth has he been then? They question his commitment to politics, as opposed to his obvious enjoyment of the limelight and wealth. But who can reasonably criticise his disinclination to raise his head above the parapet after the unforgivable, outrageously cynical way in which he, Cyril Ramaphosa and Matthews Phosa were treated by Mbeki’s false “plot” allegations in 2001?
Indeed, it is precisely because he would represent such a breath of fresh air compared to the current leader’s neurotic approach, and its knock-on effect on the style of government, that many will support him.
Certainly Sexwale is not shy with the media; he clearly enjoys its attention. His confidence encourages the view that he would set a different tone at the top — a more open one, more self-assured and willing to welcome ideological engagement.
Some people are asking if he is the ideal “compromise candidate”. But this is the wrong question, premised on the Mbeki-Zuma duel. The sell-by date of this narrative is passing rapidly. Neither option is now plausible.
Zuma will not be the next president because the establishment simply will not countenance it. Mbeki will respect the constitutional two-term limit, and once the threat of a Zuma presidency (of the ANC and thence the country) is finally put to sleep, the one pragmatic justification for him remaining president of the ANC will thankfully dissipate.
The more demanding question is whether Sexwale, despite his relative youth, can bridge the two great traditions of the ANC — its African nationalist one and its socialist leanings. Does he have the wit and the political dexterity to manage the tensions inherent in such an organisation, and its quest for social transformation in terms of both race and class?
Every previous ANC leader has had the depth of perspective and character to do so. Tokyo Sexwale will have to convince enough people within the ANC’s broad church that he does.
Even his most persuasive supporters are unsure about this. Not because they doubt his talent, but simply because they recognise the daunting scale of the challenge.
Who would want the job? Only the most ambitious person, with a ravenous hunger for power. As with Ramaphosa, one might well ask: have the years spent in corporate boardrooms blunted Sexwale’s appetite or served to sharpen the political skills? Does he want it enough, or is it rather a case of others wanting him to want it enough?