With CPIX breaching the upper limit of the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) inflation target of 3% to 6% for the first time in 44 months in April, economists feel that an interest-rate hike next week is virtually unavoidable.
In fact, many believe that one hike many not be sufficient to quell consumer spending.
Described as a “real shocker”, the leap in CPIX inflation from 5,5% year-on-year in March to 6,3% in April — the first time the figure has breached the upper limit of the SARB’s inflation target since August 2003 and way above a consensus forecast of 5,9% — was driven mainly by a 68c-per-litre petrol-price increase and significant upward pressure on food prices.
“CPIX inflation outcome was unusually pushed up by a very large increase in the petrol price, which is unlikely to be repeated in coming months. Nevertheless, we forecast CPIX inflation will miss the upper target limit of 6% several more times in the next 12 months due to the deterioration in the rand price of petroleum, rising food-price inflation, effective rand weakness and both rising inflation expectations and salary and wage increases.
“In addition, today’s figure has noticeably pushed up the CPIX inflation outcome over the next 12 months for statistical reasons,” argues Investec economist Annabel Bishop.
“We continue to believe the SARB will hike interest rates by 50 basis points in June. Should this hike not materialise, this will clearly demonstrate that the SARB has a far greater tolerance for a higher inflation environment (that is, one above the upper limit of the inflation target — 6% year-on-year),” she adds.
Says Cadiz Holdings’s Adenaan Hardien: “Petrol prices were hiked again in May and the current under-recovery on the petrol-price formula indicates that another price hike of around 20c/l is on the cards for June. Thus, there will be no easing of pressure from key price drivers over the near term.
Cycle peak
“This may very well be the peak in the current inflation cycle, although May’s and June’s numbers should be of similar altitude before inflation rates are expected to start descending in July,” says Standard Bank economist Elna Moolman.
“These [numbers] will be the most recent inflation data available at the MPC [monetary policy committee] meeting next week.
“Retail inflation was probably higher than what the SARB had anticipated, in which case the lift provided to the base value from which future inflation rates will be calculated means that the SARB’s inflation forecasts may be higher at the coming MPC meeting than the previous one.
“Further, the elevated wage demands that have mushroomed since the previous MPC meeting, combined with a rising inflation profile and the possibility of an inflation expectations deterioration, create a fragile constitution that may entice monetary policy action to prevent a price-wage spiral from developing.
“The risks to the outlook are non-negligible and firmly biased to the upside,” says Moolman.
Absa’s Ridle Markus, however, while acknowledging that a rate hike is probably overdue, argues that recent pronouncements by SARB Governor Tito Mboweni, to the effect that current factors underpinning inflation are exogenous and cannot be affected by a rate hike, have convinced him that interest rates will most likely be kept unchanged at the June MPC meeting.
“Although April’s inflation data increased the probability of a rate hike, the SARB may sit on the sidelines and wait for inflation to ease in the second half of 2007 due to technical factors,” he contends.
Case for a rise
But Razia Khan of Standard Chartered Bank believes the despite comments from Mboweni last week about policy not reacting to fuel- and food-related pressures, the strong rise in the April CPIX probably cements the case for a June rate rise.
“It is still all-important to influence inflation expectations now, in order to ensure that breach of the inflation target is only temporary. But looking at the extent of underrecovery in fuel prices in recent months, we are no longer as sure that this will be the case.
“Inflation will certainly be pressured in the months ahead. South Africa’s inflation outlook will also be negatively influenced by any rand volatility, and with the rand susceptible to any turn in risk aversion, this is not comforting.
“With unions demanding a double-digit pay increase, the SARB needs to take action now. Standard Chartered has called for a 50-basis-point rate hike in June. This data only serves to reinforce that,” Khan says.
“The breakdown is especially important in the South African context. CPI for low-expenditure groups has surged to 7,3%, with food inflation rising a massive 8,4%. Even core inflation (excluding food) has risen to 5,9%. Inflation targeting in South Africa has especial resonance as a pro-poor policy, and the latest data does not make for comforting reading.
“It’s not just the damage done as a result of the breach of the target, but also the fact that low-income inflation has accelerated that is important. There is sufficient strength in the economy to absorb additional tightening (in fact, in real terms, tightening over the course of this cycle has been negligible).
“Corrective action is urgently required. The SARB must hike interest rates next week,” Khan adds.
Short-term risk
Nedbank believes that rates are likely to remain unchanged during the remainder of 2007, but acknowledges the increased risk of a rate rise in the short term.
“The risks to the inflation outlook have increased again, with rising oil prices, higher wage demands and further concerns about food prices given continued local drought conditions. Psychologically, the breach in the Reserve Bank’s upper limit for CPIX could play a part in next week’s decision on interest rates.
“However, the four consecutive interest rate hikes in 2006 are already starting to affect consumer spending, as is evident from the latest vehicle sales numbers and yesterday’s [Tuesday’s] GDP figures, which indicated marginally slower growth, particularly in the broad wholesale and retail trade sector. This will ease some of the pressure on the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy,” Nedbank says.
But Efficient Research economist Fanie Joubert believes the MPC is likely to raise rates next week to save face. “This most recent data justifies the criticism aimed at the SARB’s risky decision to leave rates unchanged during the previous two MPC meetings [February and April]. In addition, it creates serious expectations that rates will be raised during the June MPC meeting as the SARB tries to regain some reputation,” he says. — I-Net Bridge