The African National Congress (ANC) was the party demonstrating the most positive growth trend going into the 2009 national elections, the South African Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR) said on Wednesday.
”Contrary to the popular media reports of the ANC as a party under siege from dissatisfied voters, it is the ANC and not the Democratic Alliance [DA] that is attracting growing popular support,” spokesperson Frans Cronje said at the launch of a report on the relative performance of the two parties in Cape Town on Wednesday night.
The SAIRR identified two contrary political trends for the periods 1994 to 2000 and 2000 to 2006.
In the first six-year period the DA made significant measurable gains in eroding ANC influence. Its support levels peaked, however, at just below two million votes between 2000 and 2004 and subsequently declined.
In the period 2000 to 2006 the ANC regained much of the support it had lost relative to the DA.
”Going into 2009 it was the ANC that demonstrated the most positive electoral track record,” he said.
Cronje said that predicting outcomes of the 2009 national election was complicated by the fact that the DA had chosen a new leader and that the ANC could do the same before the end of the year.
The ANC had been successful in managing to appeal to the short-term interests of its constituents, he said.
”The number of social-grant beneficiaries had doubled over the period that saw the ANC erode the DA’s early gains.
”There had been many other notable service-delivery successes, although many South Africans continued to live in deplorable circumstances”.
He said the inequality, together with ANC infighting over leadership, could at some point be expected to influence the ANC’s electoral support but 2009 was perhaps too early for this to happen.
The DA, on the other hand had, arguably, alienated first its white liberal support base following the party’s amalgamation with the National Party.
It then alienated some of its conservative support as it sought to soften its conservative image.
”It became increasingly unclear what interests the DA was appealing to.” — Sapa