Thabo Mbeki says he is prepared to serve another term as ANC president if the ”leadership” asks him to stick around. But, in the face of strong opposition within his party, why is the president so determined to take it to the wire?
A generous interpretation of the ANC policy conference, at least on the leadership issue, was that it registered a draw: half of the ANC wants Mbeki to continue as party president and the other half doesn’t. As I said, that is a kind interpretation.
The early efforts to remove him from the contest were defeated, but the message is unambiguous. The majority of delegates made clear that they do not want him to be the next president of the ANC — and this at a meeting where nearly half of those who attended were employees of Mbeki’s developmental state, rather than branch leaders.
Delegates said they wanted the next ANC president to be the president of the republic. How else do you interpret the word ”prefer”? Imagine how things will stack up at the national conference, where 90% of voting delegates should be from the branches. Does the president really want to expose himself to a bruising contest in which the prospect of humiliation looms large?
Many commentators argue that Mbeki is not as keen to get the post as to keep Jacob Zuma out of it. In this season of conjecture, some say the president is really only warming the seat for a candidate he might reveal later, such as Tokyo Sexwale or someone else.
This suggests an extraordinary mistrust and lack of confidence in Zuma, who has served the ANC at almost all levels of leadership, from head of intelligence in exile to deputy president. What has happened to suggest to his comrades that the man is ill-suited for the presidency?
Is it an issue of morals — a philandering man who slept with his deceased friend’s daughter? Or lack of sophistication — a man who sleeps with an HIV-positive woman without a condom and takes a shower to lessen his chances of contracting the disease? Or a fear of his association with the SACP and Cosatu?
But if these are the arguments, what has happened to the ANC’s sense of pride in its collective leadership?
When it suits them, the ANC leaders will say there is no succession debate, which is the product of the media’s imagination, and that leadership issues will resolve themselves in time. But the past few months suggest otherwise. Ahead of the policy conference, almost all provincial structures of the ANC pronounced on the leadership issue, with the majority deciding that they did not want ”two centres of power”.
As explained by Free State ANC chairperson Ace Magashule: ”In principle, we believe there is only one centre of power — and that is the ANC. However, practice has taught us, particularly in the Free State, that having different leaders in government and in the organisation creates problems.”
ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe told the media that the overwhelming view from commissions on the leadership issue was that the underpinning principle was that ”the right of ANC members to elect leadership should be sacrosanct. In debating leadership, this right should not be tampered with.”
This is self-explanatory, and Mbeki was surely listening. Other qualifications built into the final statement, such as ”the right of any member to elect or be elected to any position in the movement, should be upheld” mean exactly that: nothing. The people want to elect their leader and they are saying he should be the candidate in the next general elections, which clearly disqualifies Mbeki.
Hello, hello, is anyone listening? Former British statesman Lord Salisbury was once quoted as saying: ”I do believe politicians would be far more ready to resign office if they did not feel that their doing so would give such infinite pleasure to their adversaries.”
Could that be our problem?
Rapule Tabane is associate deputy editor