Rape levels in South Africa remain alarming. With 111 rapes per 100Â 000 people, our rate is still among the highest for countries that collate such reports.
South Africa is well ahead of comparable countries, including Ghana, at 4,77, Argentina, at 8,89 and England, at 16,5. At the top end are countries like Sweden, at 23,39, the United States, at 31,77, Namibia, at 36,9 and Canada, at 73,7.
The figures are not always directly comparable because of the different methodologies used. South Africa has an extremely high incidence of rape homicide, but this is recorded as murder, not rape. Similarly, we have a high incidence of multiple perpetrator rape, but these are recorded as single rapes.
But there are other problems in interpreting crime statistics. Canada, perceived as a relatively safe country, has extremely high levels of reported rape — and this is attributable to faith in the criminal justice system. Victims report being raped when they believe their case will be thoroughly investigated and prose-cuted with sensitivity.
In South Africa, we should expect to see improved police performance going hand in hand with an increase in reporting. Although our rape statistics have shown a 4,2% drop — by 2Â 309 cases — in the last year, we do not know if that represents a lower incidence or lower reporting.
And if there has been less reporting, we do not know whether this is because of poor policing. We may be seeing no more than the fallout from one high-profile rape case — the Jacob Zuma trial, in which the complainant was publicly humilated. This may have discouraged rape victims from coming forward.
At least in the short to medium term, the government’s laudable aim of reducing rape by 7% to 10% is thus a kite-flying exercise that sets the police up for failure.
If we accept that between 90% and 95% of rape cases remain unreported, improving the criminal justice response must result in increased reporting. Over time, this should stabilise and then, finally, the numbers will begin to fall, as the deterrent effect of a functioning justice system kicks in. We are far from that point.
With the Sexual Offences Bill about to become law, the concern about rape statistics becomes more pressing. Much hope has been pinned on the law’s promised role in addressing the high rape levels.
But evaluating its effects must go beyond the numbers. We cannot measure its success in improving investigation and prosecution, and cutting secondary victim trauma, by looking at statistics.
The numbers tell us we have a serious problem. They don’t tell us much about whether we’re doing the right things to address it.
Dee Smythe works for the gender, health and justice research unit of the health sciences faculty at the University of Cape Town.