Problems are piling up for Republicans as they seek a presidential election candidate with the strength and charisma to overcome the ”Bush deficit”. The choice on offer has failed so far to inspire the party’s base. And polls suggest adverse ideological and demographic shifts could confound any future nominee.
George W Bush, his approval ratings touching historic lows, cannot run again in 2008. But as one Democratic congressman noted, he will still be on the ballot. How they propose to clean up the president’s mess, while distancing themselves from the Jonah in the White House, is the primary challenge for would-be Republican successors.
Internal party alienation is deepening. By some estimates, nearly 40% of Republican voters no longer support the Iraq war; 46% of white evangelical Protestants, erstwhile key Bush supporters, now disapprove of the job he is doing. Among all voters, according to a Pew survey last month, only 29% are happy with the president’s performance. He fares little better in other polls.
One long-lasting consequence of the Bush meltdown may be a shift away from Republicans by self-described independents — three in every 10 votersÂÂ. Switches by these non-aligned voters helped the Democrats to win control of Congress last November. The defections may turn into a stampede next year.
Ironically, the blocking of Bush’s flagship immigration Bill by congressional Republicans has helped to alienate another voter bloc. In 2004, at least 40% of Hispanics — the largest minority group — backed Bush. Now, by a margin of nearly three to one, they say they will most likely back the Democrats, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll. In one notional match-up, Hispanic voters back Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton over Rudy Giuliani, the leading Republican, by 66% to 27%.
Republican problems extend to the candidates themselves, with none having proved themselves capable of uniting or enthusing the party faithful.
Disappointing campaign fundraising results tell a story. While the top three Democrats — Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards — have raked in $68,5-milllion in the past three months, the top three Republicans — Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain — have netted $48,7-million.
McCain is in particular trouble, having been forced to fire campaign staff for lack of funds.
Despite an improved profile among voters, the gaffe-prone, multimillionaire Romney has been obliged to borrow from himself to keep going. Many wonder whether a Mormon can ever be president — although similar doubts were expressed about the Catholic Jack Kennedy before he won in 1960.
Polls suggest the pro-choice Giuliani is seen as too liberal by conservative Republicans to carry the party’s banner. His personal life is also coming under campaign-threatening scrutiny.
This flawed line-up helps to explain the interest building around Fred Thompson, a chummy former Tennessee senator, arch-conservative and well-known television actor who is expected to enter the race soon.
But Ronald Reagan he ain’t. Thompson’s qualifications for the job, and his ability to reach out to moderates and independents, have yet to be tested. When they are, he may be found lacking. As Politico newspaper columnist Roger Simon has pointed out, Americans picked Bush on the basis of ”have-a-beer-and-hang-out” affability, not competence. They will not want to make the same mistake again.
The Democratic field does not lack similar difficulties. Unlike the Republicans, Obama and Clinton have awoken something akin to passion among the party grassroots. Yet Obama remains inescapably what he is — a young, inexperienced and occasionally faltering prospect whose time has probably not yet come. And Clinton remains a nationally divisive figure with the highest unfavourable ratings of any candidate, averaging 50%. If that stays unchanged, she could easily win the Democratic nomination — only to prove unelectable in the general election.
In this wide open race, the Democratic candidate advancing fastest is, as yet, no candidate at all. Support for Al Gore is up to 34% in the Pew survey, only 10 points behind Clinton, even though the former vice-president says he has no plans to stand. Other polls indicate a similar surge.
The focus until now has been on an all-New York showdown, between Clinton and Giuliani. But perhaps more attention should be paid to Nashville. If Thompson and Gore have anything at all in common, it is Tennessee — the southern state both call home — and the advantages of the dark horse. — Â