Southern African leaders will unlikely be able to find a solution to the meltdown in Zimbabwe at their summit meeting in Zambia later this week, and will probably dabble only in diplomatic matters, analysts predict.
Few expect concrete results from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) heads of state gathering that starts in Lusaka on Thursday, or that the regional bloc will alter its stance of quiet diplomacy towards the ailing state.
”SADC has no muscle, no enforcement abilities,” Moeletsi Mbeki, deputy chairperson of the South African Institute for International Affairs, told Agence France-Presse.
”SADC has no power to make the Zimbabwean government do anything.”
Chris Maroleng, a Zimbabwean expert at the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies, said SADC’s track record showed it was unlikely to publicly condemn Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe or his ruling Zanu-PF.
”There is very little it can do outside some kind of diplomatic initiative.”
South Africa’s president Thabo Mbeki will report to the summit on his efforts to mediate a political stalemate between Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.
Fellow SADC leaders, faced with a rising flood of Zimbabwean refugees to their countries, mandated Mbeki in March to broker talks following a violent clampdown by Mugabe’s government on opposition supporters.
A Zimbabwean government report last week claimed an agreement with the opposition may be reached soon, despite the ruling party being accused of thwarting mediated talks.
A Zimbabwean official has sought to downplay Zimbabwe’s profile at this week’s summit.
”This is a normal meeting of the SADC leaders, but we are aware at every summit there are people trying to put Zimbabwe in the spotlight,” Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga said at the weekend.
”We are aware of efforts by the West to divide African nations over Zimbabwe but the good thing is African leaders are aware of these machinations.”
Plans for the ailing state’s economic recovery are likely to feature at the summit as the country’s population reels from world-record inflation and chronic shortages of food, fuel and other commodities.
Four out of five Zimbabweans are jobless and about 80% of the population live below the poverty threshold as Zimbabwe plans to import 300 000 tonnes of the staple maize from its neighbours and international food aid is being stepped up.
Mugabe blames his country’s economic woes on drought and sanctions imposed on him and his ruling party elite following presidential polls dismissed as rigged by opposition parties and Western observers.
But critics say the problems are the result of controversial land reforms in which the government seized at least 4 000 farms from white commercial farmers for reallocation to landless blacks and state cronies.
The SADC summit will see Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa take chairmanship of the 14-member regional bloc, criticised by Western nations for not acting decisively against the Zimbabwean government.
Mwanawasa recently broke ranks by likening Zimbabwe to a ”sinking Titanic,” and some hope he will use the chairmanship to push for a more
hardline stance against the troubled nation’s leaders.
Other summit discussion points include regional economic integration, as well as the political situation in Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Lesotho has been rocked by political unrest since the disputed outcome of elections in March which saw Prime Minister Phakalita Mosisili returned to power for a third term.
The DRC is in the throes of transition after a devastating civil war which culminated in the first democratic elections in four decades last year. The east of the country remains unstable and opposition leader Jean-Pierre Bemba is in exile.
The summit will also see the launch of a long-mooted regional standby military force. – Sapa-AFP