Presidential hopeful Tokyo Sexwale’s last-minute campaign in the succession race is gaining momentum and is said to be rattling both the Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma camps, which are preparing to barter with Sexwale.
With the formal nomination process that opened this week, all three candidates are seeing shifts in their support. Mbeki’s support in the ANC has dwindled, say sources in the Sexwale camp, as a result of “strategic blunders”, such as the suspension of National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) head Vusi Pikoli.
Zuma, although seemingly favoured by the membership audit of the party, is bound to be affected by the judgement in the Constitutional Court against his former financial adviser, Schabir Shaik. The NPA says the judgement clears one more hurdle in its path to prosecuting Zuma.
Sources in the Sexwale camp say talks are taking place between Sexwale and members of both the Mbeki and Zuma camps, with both offering him the position of deputy president.
They say the Mbeki camp has sweetened the deal by hinting that such an arrangement would put Sexwale in the pound seats to take over when Mbeki stands down as president of the country in 2009, as he is constitutionally obliged to do.
When asked, the Zuma camp denied that such approaches had taken place. “Everyone is now on the ground trying to secure nominations. There are no talks about deals. There might be some people saying they are representing Msholozi while they haven’t actually consulted him,” a source in the Zuma camp said.
The Mbeki camp admitted such talks were taking place, but say Sexwale is “the one who is more enthusiastic about it”. “He knows that he has a better chance to get in if he strikes a deal. He has to join the president, otherwise he will not get anywhere,” an Mbeki insider told the Mail & Guardian.
Since Sexwale began campaigning five months ago, the former Gauteng premier has been trying to convince ANC members that his “third way” is what the divided party needs.
Sexwale supporters say ordinary ANC members in branches are beginning to see the dangers in the factionalism dividing the party.
They say the Sexwale option is the only one that could get the movement on the right track again.
Since May Sexwale has been criss-crossing South Africa, picking up support especially from youth leaders, despite the pronouncement by the ANC Youth League vowing support for Zuma. Besides the youth, the millionaire businessman has been targeting Umkhonto weSizwe veterans who are disillusioned because they believe the party has “forgotten” about them, individuals within Cabinet and the national executive committee of the ANC, as well as members of the so-called Veterans’ League, an informal structure consisting of party elders.
Nceba Faku, former executive mayor of the Nelson Mandela Bay metro, admits that, together with other concerned ANC members, he “went looking for someone who could be the voice of reason in the party”.
This comes despite a resolution by the Eastern Cape that the province will nominate Mbeki to continue as president of the party. The regions within the province are, however, distancing themselves from the provincial resolution.
Faku says the resolution was “rushed through at the last minute” at the provincial conference and not properly debated by the delegates. “That is why it is wobbling in the province, people are annoyed.”
He is convinced that branches are “starting to see the wisdom in supporting a third person”. “They are seeing the dangers ahead and realise it is unwise to come up with lists and commit themselves to it.”
A South African Communist Party leader cites the inability of Zuma and Mbeki to rise above the problems as the reason for the increasing momentum of Sexwale’s campaign. “He will be the saviour who will rescue the organisation. He has a strong personality and he confronts problems, unlike those cowards who dip their heads in the sand.”
Sexwale, like many within the organisation, fears a “post-Polokwane babelaas” during which the losing camp will seek revenge.
Sexwale’s increasing support among the youth will help his campaign despite the number of voting delegates — a mere 66 — that the Youth League will take to Polokwane.
“You need storm troopers in your network of people who lobby for you, and the youth have all the time in the world,” says William Gumede, political analyst and author of Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANC. “Tokyo has learned from Cyril Ramaphosa’s failed campaign. You need an engine to send information to people because ANC members are confused about what is going on.”
While Mbeki’s campaign infrastructure comes as a result of being the head of government and Zuma’s campaign is being organised by trade unions, the Friends of Jacob Zuma and supporters in KwaZulu-Natal, Sexwale does not have formal structures to support his campaign.
But he has money.
With cash-strapped branches having to fork out up to R2 000 for each delegate attending the national conference, Sexwale’s deep pockets might help push him in the race.
His contributions to keep the ANC in the black and to the SACP’s national congress in Port Elizabeth have not gone unnoticed, but his supporters insist he will not “buy” support.
Not everyone is upbeat about Sexwale’s chances of success at Polokwane. An ANC national executive committee member told the M&G that although Sexwale is becoming more serious and is not “merely dabbling”, his campaign programme seems to lack substance.
A senior leader in the tripartite alliance suggests that Sexwale add the SACP’s new president, Gwede Mantashe, to his top six to gain ground with the left, which favours Zuma.
But it seems his appearance in reality television series The Apprentice will continue to haunt him. Some sceptics within the ANC feel “this is not the way ANC leaders are supposed to behave”.
Leagues apart
The ANC Women’s League
The next two months will see the league convening provincial conferences to finalise nominations for the ANC leadership, but it appears that Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is earmarked for one of the two top jobs in the party. “A woman in the presidency” is the league’s mission for Polokwane.
The provincial conferences begin on October 12 2007 and give members an opportunity to engage on the leadership issues, but Gauteng and the Northern Cape will have their conferences after the closing date for nominations.
The provincial executive committees of these provinces will convene structures to consult and pronouncements will be made on nominations before the planned conferences, says spokesperson Charlotte Lobe.
Although the league is allowed to take only 68 delegates to Polokwane, half of the 4 000 voting delegates are expected to be women, making the league an influential force. — Mandy Rossouw
The MK Military Veterans’ Association
The MKMVA is still hoping it can pull off a surprise by securing voting powers at the start of the conference. The ANC maintains the vets have no voting powers and will attend only as observers. It has, however, said that the conference will have the final say on what happens to the status of the vets.
The MKMVA conference held last week was marked by strong support for Zuma and resulted in ANC national chairperson Mosiuoa Lekota disappearing seconds before he was due to address the gathering. When Lekota was asked to come forward and speak, the vets erupted in a chant of Umshini Wam, a song Lekota has said is no longer relevant.
Newly elected MKMVA secretary general Ayanda Dlodlo says that, to date, Lekota has still not offered any apologies for his disappearance. New chairperson Kebby Maphatshoe says the vets are still hoping to do enough ground work before the national conference to win support for voting status. — Staff reporter