President Thabo Mbeki’s domestic approval rating in September fell to 40%, its lowest point in four years, TNS Research Surveys said on Monday.
The fall was evident across all race groups but slightly less so among black respondents, the global market insight and information group said in a statement.
Large drops occurred in Bloemfontein, Johannesburg and Soweto, the West Rand and East London. East London was, however, still the most positive area. Only Pretoria did not show a decline in the approval rating.
For three years from 2000, the president’s approval rating lay generally in the low 30s, but from February 2003 the percentage of people who believed he was doing a good job began to rise. By the end of 2003, it was in the low 40s, and 2004 saw a remarkable rise with the celebrations of ten years of democracy and the successful second democratic elections.
Then, 2005 scaled new heights for the president, during which his approval score averaged 61%, up three points from his 2004 average of 58%.
In 2006, after the fourth consecutive fall (to 54% in February) from his high of 66% in April 2005, his approval rating staged a recovery back to 61% but then dropped to 54% by year-end.
After maintaining this level up until June this year, the September reading showed a dramatic drop to 40%, the lowest since April 2003, TNS said.
The scores for metropolitan black people were fairly consistent throughout 2005 but dropped notably in February 2006, recovering well in April. They ended 2006 at 69%. The September score, at 53%, was the lowest since 2003.
The score among whites had been consistently in the mid-30s in recent years until the end of 2006 when it dropped to 26%. It was more volatile this year but the September score of 14% was the lowest since 2002. The coloured sample reached a new all-time low, while the Indian/Asian sample showed higher volatility but was still well above its all-time low.
A consistent 10% to 12% of people gave a ”don’t know” response across the whole sample. For the September reading, the ”don’t know” response rose to 17%, indicating a greater degree of uncertainty over how people felt about Mbeki.
Analysis by area showed that, in September this year, support for the president was highest in East London (56% — down dramatically from the 84% figure at the end of 2006) and lowest in Durban, Cape Town and the West Rand (28%), TNS said.
The study was conducted among a sample of 2 000 adults (1 260 black respondents, 385 white respondents, 240 coloured respondents and 115 Indian/Asian respondents) in the seven major metropolitan areas, with a margin of error of less than 2,5%. — Sapa