Pervez Musharraf’s second coup, or “emergency plus” as it is being referred to in the Pakistani media, was widely expected by the time it was finally announced on the afternoon of November 3. It is being seen here as the last roll of the dice by a desperate gambler.
In his midnight address to the nation on state TV, Musharraf came across as nervous and hesitant, far from the image of the straight-Âtalking commando he has successfully maintained over his past eight years as the leader of Pakistan. A significant moment came when, switching from Urdu to English, he appealed for understanding and patience from the international community. This, and his quoting of Abraham Lincoln to justify his suspension of the constitution, made plain that his message was intended for Washington.
For the moment, if anybody can influence Musharraf, it is George W Bush, the Pakistani dictator’s biggest supporter in the West. Since 9/11, the United States has pumped $10-billion into Pakistan, most of the money going straight to the military.
In a Los Angeles Times story of November 4 an unnamed Pentagon official is quoted as saying that “the problem is we have a war in Afghanistan, and Pakistan is a coalition partner… We have troops on the ground in Afghanistan, and it’s hard to have a good outcome if Pakistan is not cooperating.” The report goes on to quote Paul Pillar, a former CIA counter-terrorism official, as saying that the United States is likely to continue to “scold Musharraf but not impose significant sanctions.”
And this, for now, is the bottom line. Without American pressure, Musharraf is likely to continue his crackdown. Within the first 24 hours of his emergency rule, the police arrested over a thousand lawyers, journalists and political activists across the country.
Meanwhile, back in the mountains where Pakistan’s real problems lie, the stand-off with the militants continues. Musharraf named the rising tide of jihadi militancy as one of the reasons for the imposition of martial law. But he did not elaborate on how this would give him more powers: as army chief and head of state, there had been nothing to stop him from acting against the militants who have virtually taken over large swathes of the country.
It is clear that, for the time being, no street movement will gather enough momentum to topple Musharraf. The only party that could conceivably cause a problem in the short run is Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party. But given her tacit understanding with Musharraf, as well as her reluctance to upset Washington, it is unlikely that Bhutto will launch a street movement.
So for the time being Pervez Musharraf appears to have pulled off his coup with relatively little opposition. But the problems he has created for himself are unlikely to go away.
Irfan Husain is a columnist with Dawn newspaper in Pakistan. A longer version of this article first appeared on www.opendemocracy.net