A constitutional crisis. Instability. Business as usual. Disillusionment. The jury was out on South Africa’s immediate political future at the Mail & Guardian‘s Critical Thinking Forum held in Johannesburg on Tuesday evening.
Moderator Judge Dennis Davis introduced political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi, political journalist Karima Brown, author and journalist Hein Marais and ANC MP Langa Zita, posing the question: Will the African National Congress’s (ANC) Polokwane conference in December bring popular change or business as usual?
The race for the presidency of the ANC has very much come down to ANC leader Thabo Mbeki versus his deputy, Jacob Zuma, with five provincial ANC structures and the ANC Women’s League supporting Zuma thus far, and four provinces standing behind Mbeki. ”The ANC has become a tower of Babel over the past few weeks,” said Matshiqi.
The ANC leadership election in Polokwane may lead to an uneasy political situation: Zuma in charge of the ruling party, while Mbeki remains leader of South Africa until the next national election. And if Zuma then ascends to the Union Buildings, will his policies differ enough from those of Mbeki to make a difference in the lives of South Africa’s poor?
”The question for me is whether popular renewal is about rebelling against the establishment,” said Matshiqi, adding: ”Renewal is not always synonymous with progress.” He added: ”I suspect we will see elements of renewal [in Polokwane], but will these elements amount to progress?”
However, if one looks at the documents and decisions that emerged from the ANC policy conference held in Midrand earlier this year, the ANC’s Zita said, ”there is already the possibility of renewal within the ANC”.
Though it still matters who the president is, he added, the ANC’s policies that are already agreed upon are the change. ”The issue for me is the tactics of managing these policies.”
Society has moved forward through contradictions, said Brown, referring to the juxtaposition of Mbeki and Zuma, ahead of the leadership challenge in Polokwane. However, South Africa does not need another technocratic leader. If Mbeki is re-elected, it will be business as usual.
However, if renewal is to take place, it will be on three levels within the ANC: policy, leadership and political culture.
Marais followed on Brown’s comments about Mbeki and Zuma, saying the one cannot exist without the other. However, ”What [Mbeki] has taken away from us is a sense of certainty,” he added. On the other hand, Mbeki has been in charge for years, and both his fans and detractors know his game, but Zuma does not have ”a political project that he can point to for where he is taking us”.
This can count both for and against Mbeki, who ”faces the challenges of incumbency”, according to Matshiqi.
Marais added: ”Will Jacob Zuma’s supporters be patient enough for long enough with the juggling act he will have to perform [should he be elected]?”
Service delivery
Before debate started, Ben Cashdan (of Unauthorised: Thabo Mbeki fame) screened an extract of his latest documentary, Through the Eye of a Needle, in which members of some of the Eastern Cape’s poorest communities voiced their disgust at a lack of service delivery. ”If you are poor in this new South Africa, you will die poor. Nothing will change for you,” said one resident of Potsdam community.
Commented Matshiqi: ”I hear in those voices people who see Mbeki and Zuma as symbols of hope, but they also see continuing despair.”
”It’s also about the art of what is possible,” said Brown, predicting that education, health and local government would be most affected under a Zuma presidency.
Marais said Zuma would look at a few ”easy” areas such as social development, and there may be some reactionary problems relating to Zuma’s stance on matters such as gay rights, women’s rights and the death penalty.
Judge Davis asked: ”Will we one day say, ‘Come back, Mbeki, all is forgiven’?” Said Marais: ”I think we’ll look back with a different judgement of what he [Mbeki] was trying to do.”
The apparent Mbeki-Zuma split in the ANC may also affect what happens in Polokwane. ”What will happen with the two lefts at Polokwane?” asked Zita.
Matshiqi said he fears that, when the new ANC leader is announced in Polokwane, it will be difficult for the event to continue — it may turn into a ”conference of victors”.
”Sometimes I think the ANC should have a one-day conference, elect new leaders and go home,” he joked, to laughter from the audience.
A podcast of the evening’s debate will be available for download on the M&G Online later this week
