Africa considers a South Africa ruled by Zuma

On May 30 2005, the day judgement was handed down in Schabir Shaik’s trial, Jacob Zuma flew to Zambia on an official visit. Now, as Zuma canters towards the ANC presidency, the rest of the continent is watching developments within the ANC with varying degrees of interest.

Zuma, then South Africa’s deputy president, was the first leader to visit President Robert Mugabe after his controversial win in Zimbabwe’s 2002 presidential election.

According to a department of foreign affairs dispatch after the visit, Zuma ‘congratulated President Mugabe on his re-election”. Since that meeting, Mugabe has twice deported Cosatu delegations, accusing them of being part of a Western plot to oust his government. Some Zimbabweans wonder whether a Zuma presidency would mantain South Africa’s and the ANC’s ‘quiet diplomacy” policy on Zimbabwe, completely ignoring Cosatu’s strong stance against Mugabe.

Zimbabwe’s official response is guarded. Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu said his government would always retain ‘strong bilateral ties with the ANC and the government of South Africa”, suggesting Zimbabwe would not expect any change of tack by Pretoria under Zuma.

‘He looks to me the kind of guy who would be tough on us [Zimbabweans], unlike Mbeki,” said Rongai Chinamo, a maths teacher queuing at a government office for a ‘clearance certificate” that makes it easier for him to get a permit to work in South Africa. ‘I plan to go there in January. I know we are needed there now, but what if those union people tell Zuma ‘no more Zimbabweans here’?”

Kenyan journalist Wangui Maina said only a few people watched South African developments. The Wits University-educated journalist believes that whoever takes power in the country will not really affect Kenya’s relations with South Africa. ‘South Africa is aggressive on the continent and will continue, regardless of who takes power.”

In Burundi, where Zuma was involved as a mediator between the warring factions, politician Alphonse Rugambarara admires him for being a self-made man. ‘Zuma helped us with the negotiations between different rebellions, though I did not agree with certain aspects of the agreement.”

In Ghana, Accra-based Kwesi Amoak said: ‘I think he is a capable man although he has made a lot of mistakes and has sent conflicting messages on Aids.”

A visiting MP from Ghana, Akua Sena Dansua, said that despite the rape case and pending corruption charges, it seemed South Africans were content with Zuma.

‘We can only respect that, we hope he can turn things around and build on what has been done so far,” Dansua said. ‘It is difficult to say why the ANC Women’s League has chosen Jacob Zuma, but he must have something and we have to trust and respect the decisions the people of South Africa make as they may know something more.”

Abdul Lamin, a senior lecturer in international relations at Wits University and a Sierra Leonean, said that as long as the transition was peaceful, Sierra Leone would accept the outcome. He said what would be foremost in the minds of Sierra Leoneans was whether South Africa would continue to abide by its laudable tenets. ‘Mbeki will go down as the South African leader who brought Africa to the fore. The people up there believe he is a good spokesman for the continent.”