Nominations conferences in all provinces have reduced the contest for the African National Congress (ANC) leadership to a two-horse race — and dealt a stinging setback to President Thabo Mbeki. Jacob Zuma won five provinces and, more significantly, received a total of 2Â 232 votes for the presidency, against Mbeki’s 1Â 406. The pro-Zuma provinces also endorsed his slate for other “top six” positions. And in another surprise reversal for Mbeki, the ANC Women’s League endorsed his rival.
But the game is not over — the provincial summits only decided which names go on the ballot paper. Mbeki has reacted by insisting he will stand, while intensified lobbying before the ANC’s December 16 conference could see shifts in patterns of support.
The Mail & Guardian asked five senior ANC “elders” to comment on the provincial results, the party’s hardening divisions, and the potential fallout beyond Polokwane.
Derek Hanekom
Deputy Minister of Science and Technology and NEC member
It’s a pity the contest has become polarised and positions entrenched. There’s been no attempt to find each other.
But there are different lists for the top six and NEC and that’s the reality. If one side wins in a province it’s going to stick to its list.
That doesn’t mean there’ll be no exchange or negotiation between now and the conference. You obviously need the skills of someone like Joel [Netshitenzhe], and many people in the Zuma camp would have no problem with him.
I believe many people would have preferred a compromise candidate, either because they don’t want the frontrunners; would prefer to link the terms of the ANC president and the country’s president; or are worried that the organisation is taking a beating. Early on, a lot of people were saying: “Let’s avoid a contest between these two.” The stakes are so high.
The trend is certainly for people to be mobilised behind camps, but there’s also a widespread misconception that if someone appears on a list, they’re part of a camp.
I’m not worried, though a lot of people are — we’ll come through this period, whoever wins, and learn the lessons. A lot of people won’t want to go through this exercise again.
The ANC has always allowed campaigning, but some people say we need to formalise a campaigning and lobbying period.
After the conference, there’ll also have to be some serious reflection and rebuilding; we need to recover and rebuild confidence in the organisation.
And expectations will have to be tempered: it’s a mistake both to expect the best and fear the worst if Zuma wins.
The idea that the ANC president decides ANC policy is a myth.
What the other ‘elders’ said
Mbhazima Shilowa: “‘We want an NEC that works’“
Jeremy Cronin: “‘Things cannot continue as they are’“
Kader Asmal: “The ANC will ‘heal itself’“
Zola Skweyiya: “‘Individuals come and go’“