Two former leading lights of Zimbabwe’s struggle era can testify to how tough life can be for those who try to chart their own course outside the liberation movement.
In 1988, Edgar Tekere was sacked as secretary general of Zanu-PF and formed the Zimbabwe Unity Movement (ZUM), pledging to stop what he saw as Zimbabwe’s slide into ”one-party tyranny”.
”A one-party state,” Tekere told President Robert Mugabe then, ”was never one of the founding principles of Zanu-PF and experience in Africa has shown that it brought the evils of nepotism, corruption and inefficiency.”
Having been one of the most influential figures in the liberation movement and in the post-war government, Tekere would have been a good bet to pose a serious challenge to Mugabe.
But, on a free-market platform that contrasted sharply with Mugabe’s plan of more control, Tekere fared badly in the 1990 election, winning just 16% of the vote. After that election he slipped into oblivion and penury, living off donations from former comrades.
In 2005, he wrote to Zanu-PF asking to be allowed back. Zanu-PF grudgingly took him back — on condition he did not seek any office.
Some still believe Tekere’s ZUM was an elaborate ruse by Mugabe to create the impression that he allowed opposition, a suspicion likely to haunt any possible future splinter party.
Then there was Margaret Dongo, a popular Zanu-PF MP. Protesting at corruption in the party, she left to form the Zimbabwe Union of Democrats. But the project soon fell apart.
Today, despite Mugabe’s recent triumph over rivals, talk of a possible future split refuses to go away.
But lessons were learned from Tekere and Dongo and their fate will weigh heavily on the minds of any Zanu-PF figure thinking of branching out on his or her own.
There is evident frustration in Zanu-PF with Mugabe clinging to power. However, there has been little talk — at least not since 2004 — of any of his rivals leaving to form a new party.
In 2004 six of 10 party provinces supported Emmerson Mnangagwa’s bid to become deputy president. But Mugabe vetoed the vote and sacked the chairpersons from the six provinces. In the ensuing fallout Mnangagwa loyalists, such as Jonathan Moyo, who had been information minister, talked up their new United Peoples’ Movement, a party, it was suggested, that would be home to disgruntled Zanu-PF figures.
Mnangagwa resisted, stayed on in Zanu-PF and, at least for now, is one of Mugabe’s closest allies.
A senior Zanu-PF official said Mugabe had spent the past 27 years amassing so much power that, should he leave, the party would struggle to hold itself together.
Mugabe himself said he went back on an earlier pledge to step down next year mainly because he believed his party would fall apart in his absence as ”greedy” factions were impatient for power.
A senior Zanu-PF official told the Mail & Guardian this week: ”Quite frankly we wouldn’t know what to do with ourselves. There is agitation from his [Mugabe’s] peers wanting a chance to lead and there is that layer below the liberation heroes, the younger leaders, also really impatient to get a look in.”
But, he said: ”I don’t think a lot of people would want to leave Zanu-PF and all the opportunities it presents.”
There is the opinion that part of the Movement for Democratic Change’s failure can be blamed on its lack of ”liberation credentials” and that a Zanu-PF splinter group would fill such a gap in the opposition. However, analysts said any Zanu-PF splinter group would need some sort of alliance with the existing opposition to stand a chance of making an impact, but that such coalitions would lead to inevitable differences over policy.