Umaru Yar’Adua has been in charge of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and biggest oil producer, for six months and is already struggling against endemic corruption and political infighting.
Most observers agree that Yar’Adua, a Muslim from northern Nigeria, is well-intentioned and more sincere than his predecessor, military man Olusegun Obasanjo. They also agree that he lacks the clout and decisiveness of Obasanjo.
Yar’Adua has pledged to turn round Nigeria’s economy, to quell unrest that has slashed oil production in the Niger Delta, to restore law and order, and crack down on omnipresent corruption.
The new administration has also striven to dismantle the system it inherited from Obasanjo.
It annulled his firesale of state assets to cronies and booted out once untouchable officials, such as former House of Representatives speaker Patricia Etteh, removed after a corruption scandal.
The opposition and analysts say it has performed less well on security and on the economy and social infrastructure. Power and clean water remain in short supply and armed robberies are on the increase.
While most observers agree Yar’Adua has done more in six months to calm the Niger Delta than Obasanjo ever did, attacks on oil and government targets there continue.
”The months since the April elections have seen increasingly incendiary threats from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta and continued volatility in the creeks,” François Grignon of the International Crisis Group, said this week.
”The Yar’Adua government must urgently come to grips with the core issues that have defined the agitation and conflicts in the region for two decades,” he said.
The main opposition party has been scathing about the government record.
”It is clear that this administration has not even begun to define the problems, not to talk of finding solutions to them,” the Action Congress party said this week. Its complaints ranged from law and order to ”dilapidated roads”, ”worsening unemployment” and power shortages.
The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is also in turmoil.
According to one analyst, it is ”plagued by a dispute between the old timers from the Obasanjo era and the new guard” who want to distance themselves from the ”Obasanjo system”.
Yar’Adua’s health, however, which gave cause for concern during the election campaign, no longer appears to be giving him trouble.
But there are still doubts about whether Yar’Adua will make it through his first year if electoral tribunals, which are still hearing suits calling for the annulment of his victory, decide to void the presidential election.
Former vice-president Atiku Abubakar and a former president Muhammadu Buhari, both beaten by a wide margin, are still fighting to obtain that.
”Why Yar’Adua might lose Aso Rock?”, said Tell magazine this week, referring to why the Presidency, which is known as Aso Rock, could be lost.
Tribunals have already reversed the victories of several governors from the April polls.
”Other annulments could follow,” predicted a Nigerian politician, who asked not to be identified.
Yar’Adua’s lawyers on Thursday submitted to the presidential election tribunal what they said were documents proving the president was the rightful winner. The court will rule on January 28.
”Since Yar’Adua took office in May, he has taken bold measures to increase his popularity and standing with the Nigerian people,” Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, an analyst with Eurasia group, wrote in a recent note to investors.
He cited the way the president, in addition to reversing unpopular taxes and privatisation plans, publicly declared all his family assets and released from jail two popular southern secessionists, concluding that even if fresh polls are ordered, ”Yar’Adua will likely win a convincing electoral victory”. – Sapa-AFP