Mo Shaik is likely to play a central role in South African politics if Jacob Zuma becomes president. He has been part of a network of individuals who have run the Zuma campaign, turning it into the juggernaut which won five provinces, as well as the support of both ANC leagues and Umkhonto weSizwe veterans.
In a wide-ranging interview, Shaik spoke to the Mail & Guardian editor Ferial Haffajee about post-Polokwane scenarios, the possible future of Finance Minister Trevor Manuel and Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni and how the economic policy of a future administration would be shaped. He insisted there were no plans to force out President Thabo Mbeki before the 2009 elections.
‘It’s not on the agenda, it’s categorically not on the agenda,” said Mo Shaik of reports that the Zuma camp will table a motion of no confidence in President Thabo Mbeki if Jacob Zuma leads the ANC after the Polokwane conference. Neither would the national executive committee of the ANC be purged, he said.
“They [Mbeki and Zuma] are not at war with one another; the contestation is legitimate democratic practice. During glasnost and perestroika, Gorbachev introduced the concept that different tendencies could co-exist within the party and that contradictions must be resolved non-antagonistically. One hundred years from now, 2007 will emerge as a decisive moment when a new form of democracy started to emerge.”
Shaik said the fear on both sides of the ANC was that the sitting administration would be different from the new centre of power, as government’s electoral mandate expires in 2009.
“The issue would be to find synchronicity between government and those in Luthuli House [the ANC headquarters]. It’s a matter of consultation. To what level will Luthuli House be consulted by those in government?”
Shaik said he is concerned about the threat of a “structured paralysis” in a government still led by Mbeki, either as a deliberate strategy to obstruct a successor or because of the existence of two power centres.
“We would not want an incoming administration [after the 2009 election] to have to restart the engines; all we want to do is increase the pace.”
In his notes to the ruling party’s NEC, Joel Netshitenzhe argued that the ANC is challenged by a series of “known unknowns”. Shaik responded: “The known known come 2009 is that there will be a new president and a new Cabinet. We are in the period 18 months before an election when the bureaucracy could come to a standstill. Will director generals’ contracts be renewed? What about advisers to ministers [who may not be in office]? We are concerned by what the level of slowdown will be …
“Of course, if there is a slowdown, we could claim the perverse advantage of having delivered more quickly,” adds Shaik, taking a drag on his pipe.
Sitting in his gracious old home in Pretoria, and speaking in the relaxed tones of a member of the winning camp, he said: “The person who built this house is long gone. So is the person who built the Union Buildings. One of the difficult problems of building something is that often you think you will be around long enough to enjoy the fruit — but each administration builds so that the next one can take it further.”
Manuel and Mboweni
At his annual dinner with economics editors last week, Mboweni joked that he had read that “the three M’s” — Mbeki, Mboweni and Finance Minister Trevor Manuel — were part of the ancien rÃ