Two heavyweights of Kenya’s post-independence politics square off in a presidential vote on Thursday whose run-up has seen the opposition hold a small lead in opinion polls over President Mwai Kibaki.
But the closeness of the vote has raised fears fraud and intimidation may be used to try to swing the result in a nation that has enjoyed relative stability since the end of British rule in 1963.
It will also be a test of democratic advances in Kenya which experienced a rarity in African politics five years ago — the largely peaceful transition of power from a ”Big Man” ruler to the opposition.
All except one of the public surveys since September have put opposition candidate Raila Odinga — a 62-year-old businessman and former political prisoner — a few points ahead of Kibaki, who has been in power since 2002.
But one recent poll, by Gallup, put Kibaki a point ahead, showing that all is still to play for.
”It’s going to be close, no doubt about it. But my money’s on Raila, unless there’s a lot of rigging. The polls aren’t lying,” a Western diplomat said.
After a rough campaign, including several deaths and riots, many Kenyans worry about more trouble on the day, even though it comes at a time when most are relaxing for Christmas holidays.
”The temptation to rig is always there, but it is heightened by the fact the election is very competitive,” Koki Muli, co-chair of a domestic observers’ group, told Reuters.
Her group, the Kenya Election Domestic Observation Forum, is sending between 17 000 and 20 000 locals to most constituencies across Kenya. International missions, from the African Union to the European Union, also abound, though smaller in number.
”I am hopeful that with all this attention from observers, things won’t be too scary!” Muli said.
Analysts say a possible ”nightmare scenario” for Kenya is a narrow government victory, aided by rigging.
”Then you are going to see the Raila camp go absolutely ballistic, because they’ve led the polls since September,” the Western diplomat said. He predicted such an outcome would produce rioting in Nairobi and Odinga’s western homeland Nyanza.
Economic credentials
Kibaki (76) who has been elected a legislator for every term since independence, is hoping his sound economic record of an average of 5% annual growth will win him a second term, before then retiring to his highland farm.
He has the support of his economically powerful Kikuyu tribe, the largest of Kenya’s 40 or so ethnic groups, and has tempered his aloof image with some skilful grassroots campaigning — in Mandela-like flowery shirts — in recent weeks.
Odinga has the ardent backing of his western Luo community, but has also garnered support from other ethnic groups who think the Kikuyus have had it too good under Kibaki.
Dubbed the ”kingmaker” for helping Kibaki’s 2002 win, before splitting with him over a referendum in 2005, Odinga belongs to one of Kenya’s elite political dynasties. His father is left-leaning independence hero Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.
Both men are pledging broadly similar policies of increased economic growth along free-market lines and an extension of free education to include secondary schools.
Their pledges to outlaw corruption, however, have fallen on sceptical ears given that Kibaki’s government has failed to tackle graft, while Odinga’s team includes some people implicated by media and campaigners in scandals.
”The elite will always look after themselves, be it Kibaki’s people or Raila’s people,” said Geoffrey Odindo, a Nairobi street-cleaner on about 3 500 shillings ($55) a month.
About 14-million of Kenya’s 36-million people are eligible to vote from 6am on Thursday.
Official results are expected to start coming in from Friday morning, though media surveys will give a picture overnight. – Reuters