November’s government revenue and expenditure figures suggest that the National Treasury is still on track to meet the budgeted surplus for the current fiscal year, with only the last quarter remaining, according to independent analysts.
“With the government having forecast strong revenue growth collections in the last two quarters of the fiscal year, the budgeted surplus of R10,8-billion for 2007/08 should be achieved,” the analysts say.
The Treasury recorded a fiscal deficit for November of R4,6-billion with revenue of R40,5-billion and expenditure of R45,1-billion.
It has collected 60,1% of the budgeted revenue and spent 64,5% of the budgeted expenditure in the eight months of the 2007/08 fiscal year to date.
The year-on-year growth in government revenue declined somewhat in November to 15,9% from 20% in October.
“Despite this, the cumulative growth in government revenue for the first eight months of 2007/08 of 14,9% is in line with the 15% budgeted growth in revenue for the full year,” say the analysts.
They note that the contributors to the fall in revenue for November were growth in company tax revenue, which declined to 6,7% year-on-year in November from 52,1% in October.
“This is reflective of a squeeze in corporate profits,” say the analysts.
Similarly, growth in personal tax fell to 13% year-on-year from 25,2% in October. However, growth in revenue from value-added tax increased somewhat in November to 21% year-on-year from 14,2% in October, which according to the analysts is indicative of rising consumer inflation.
On the expenditure front, spending growth decreased to 11,7% year-on-year, from 24,9% in October, bringing year-to-date expenditure to 15,8%, which is higher than the 15,4% growth in expenditure budgeted for the full fiscal year.
Government revenue
November 2007: R40,54-billion
November 2006: R34,99-billion
Government expenditure
November 2007: R45,11-billion
November 2006: R40,39-billion
Surplus (deficit)
November 2007: R4,6-billion
November 2006: R5,4-billion
— I-Net Bridge