Only last month Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe appeared to have crushed all internal opposition when his party backed his bid for a sixth term as president, but it now seems that he finds himself having to put down a fresh internal party rebellion.
Since the start of the year, the Zimbabwean media have been rife with speculation that Simba Makoni, a senior member of Mugabe’s politburo and a former finance minister in his government, is preparing to lead a dissident group to challenge Mugabe for the presidency in March.
But Makoni himself has refused to be drawn into the speculation.
One of the key drivers of the push, Kudzai Mbudzi, a retired army major, told the Mail & Guardian that there was no chance a new party would emerge. Instead, he said, there was a bid to push for change from within the ruling party.
“We are not going to abandon Zanu-PF. If you are on a bus and you have a problem with the driving, you do not abandon the bus. You simply change the driver,” Mbudzi said.
Makoni was a representative of Zanu-PF in Europe during the liberation struggle and, at age 30, he became one of the youngest members of Mugabe’s first post-independence Cabinet.
He later honed his diplomatic skills as executive secretary of the Southern African Development Community before returning to the private business sector. He was back in government in 2000 as finance minister, but left three years later after a public row with Mugabe over economic policy.
However, he has remained a member of the politburo, the most senior body in Zanu-PF. There, his reformist stance has led to frequent clashes with the more radical figures that dominate Mugabe’s inner circle.
Makoni was among a group of politburo members that opposed Mugabe’s radical price slashing campaign in June last year, a stance that won him the backing of influential ruling party figures who were mainly opposed to the initiative because it damaged their own business interests.
Party insiders now say it is these same business people who are agitating for change and pushing Makoni’s name forward.
In December, speaking at a public debate held by Ibbo Mandaza, a publisher he is close to, Makoni further stoked tensions with the Zanu-PF leadership when he decried Zimbabwe’s decay.
“The old Zimbabwean was admired, envied across the region and worldwide. The new Zimbabwean is only despised, mocked and pitied by his neighbours. The old Zimbabwean leader I knew was there for service, the new one is only there for privilege,” he said.
His reformist agenda gives him cross-party appeal, and he is highly regarded by Western governments and business.
But there are doubts whether a Zanu-PF splinter movement would be able to prise rural support from Mugabe. If anything, it is likely the breakaway would only split the opposition vote.
Reports suggest the new grouping would not favour a coalition with the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
An independent poll in 2003 placed Makoni second behind MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai in popularity among urban supporters, but he remains largely unknown in rural areas. Any new challenger to Mugabe would also need to win over the top rank of the security forces, increasingly influential in Zimbabwean politics.
Makoni is said to enjoy the support of Solomon Mujuru, a former head of Zimbabwe’s army. Vitalis Zvinavashe, who succeeded Mujuru as army general before his own retirement four years ago, is also said to back a change of leadership.
The news of a possible dissident faction within Zanu-PF has added life to what has otherwise been a dull start to the election campaign.