The international financial system is in turmoil. The world is heading for a big fat recession. Developing economies, already vulnerable to global shocks such as sharp oil price hikes, will likely catch the proverbial cold. Widespread power failures are shutting down South African cities and industries.
Fortunately, the new-look ANC is right on top of all this. Judging by the material in ANC Today over the past two weeks, its increasingly powerful shadow government is devoting all its energy to the two questions at the very apex of the global crisis: exacting revenge on the Scorpions and dealing with an irresponsible media.
And in the process, they are providing us with a richer definition of ‘sub-prime”.
The real government — like a ventriloquist’s dummy — obediently prepares the legislation to bury the Scorpions and spouts errant nonsense in support of an almost entirely gratuitous policy. In an act of unprecedented efficiency, the Scorpions is set to be gone by mid-year.
Meanwhile, the heir apparent, Jacob Zuma, who plays the Dauphin to Thabo Mbeki’s Louis XIV — with Cardinal Kgalema ‘Richelieu” Motlanthe waiting in the wings and very probably operating the strings — has gone to the Alps.
Since I doubt if he is much of a skier, one can reasonably presume that JZ is there to deliver a revolutionary message that will send a shudder through the assembled plumage of the world’s richest men and women. Or not, as the case may be.
Let’s be clear about what is going on here. Global capital is ‘concerned”. It wants to exercise its influence and power over the man they now think may succeed Mbeki — who a week from February 1 himself faces one of his toughest moments.
Mbeki has delivered the State of the Nation speech to the opening of Parliament on eight previous occasions. Each time, he has been in control. As he stood before them, the assembled ranks of ANC MPs were, if not completely supine, then at least docile. Next week will be a completely different game. There has been nothing short of a palace coup. For a control freak, that is a rather unsettling thing.
All other things being equal, Mbeki will deliver his last State of the Nation speech in February 2009, ahead of the general election later in the year. But I am far from certain that he is going to survive that long. Power is draining away faster than the loads can be shed. It is not impossible that by next February, President Kgalema Motlanthe will be delivering this speech. The deal will have been done: Mbeki will stand down early and Zuma will not be president — nor will he be going to prison.
But I digress.
Next Friday, Mbeki will need to recognise that the mood has changed — not just inside his party, but in the country. The Eskom fiasco has forever deflated his erstwhile reputation for competent governance. Economic stability and the conditions for wealth-creation that this has enabled are being seriously undermined.
If Mbeki cannot turn the tide quickly, he is going to be remembered as the man who was good on detail, but whose judgement failed him on the big stuff — and no less galling, as the sandwich-filler between Saint Nelson Mandela and the Great Revolutionary Leader.
If I was leader of the opposition, I would be asking the question that sacked Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont asked of Prime Minister John Major: is the president ‘in office but not in power”?
Which brings me to Helen Zille. She will not be in Parliament to make this point next week because she is not an MP. I am beginning to have second thoughts about the wisdom of this choice. Her profile is far lower than that of her predecessor.
And the opposition is as lacking in influence as ever. If there was ever any doubt, Polokwane proved the point: the real opposition lies within the ANC alliance.
Yet the challenges are already coming fast and furious for the new ANC leadership and it is intriguing to watch the left-wing members of the coalition performing somersaults trying to appear strong and assertive without sounding arrogant or overconfident; they want to hold on to the opportunity of the moment without scaring the horses.
But beware the Davos Effect. Having been screwed in the past, the left must be acutely aware of the vulnerability of their chosen leader, as much as the lobbyists from big business are aware of his manifest malleability.
While all this is going on, we can only hope that someone is taking note of the big events in the world economy — and preparing for what looks like a rough ride.