Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, who only days ago looked assured of re-election next month as a result of splits in the opposition, now has to contend with a growing mutiny within his own ranks.
Analysts who had regarded Mugabe as a shoo-in at national polls on March 29 are revising their forecasts after he was confronted this week by a challenge from within his party and some of his top allies were defeated in primaries.
“The divisions within Zanu-PF are now coming out in the open,” said Harare-based political commentator Takura Zhangazha.
“Makoni’s challenge has shown Mugabe is facing opposition from the Zanu-PF for the first time in years.”
Simba Makoni, who sits on the Zanu-PF politburo, was declared persona non-grata by party elders after he announced last Tuesday he would challenge Mugabe as an independent.
The former finance minister claimed he had decided to run after widespread consultations with Zanu-PF colleagues and remained a loyal party member.
So far, no other senior members have publicly endorsed him, but a further sign that Mugabe’s grip on the party was weakening came with news on Friday that several top lieutenants, including his agriculture and education ministers, had been dumped as parliamentary candidates in electoral primaries.
Bornwell Chakaodza, a former government spokesperson who is now a columnist, said the elections could no longer be seen as a foregone conclusion.
“It’s going to be a landmark election, not as easily predictable as past elections. For the first time Mugabe is facing a challenge from within,” he said.
“I don’t see him winning in a free and fair election and the million-dollar question is: ‘Will Mugabe bow out gracefully?'”
Mugabe won the last presidential elections in 2002 after defeating Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
The MDC claimed the result was rigged but few commentators had given Tsvangirai much hope this time after talks with a rival party faction designed to agree on a single candidate collapsed last Sunday.
Newspaper proprietor Trevor Ncube, a long-time Mugabe foe, said Makoni had breathed new life into the contest after the MDC had snuffed out its chances.
“Coming so soon after the failure of the two MDC factions to unite, Makoni’s initiative provides a credible home and leadership for all those in opposition who desire genuine change and not self-aggrandisement,” Ncube wrote in an article in his weekly Zimbabwe Independent.
“The MDC’s weakness has always been its pedestrian leadership, which should now join hands with Makoni to form a formidable coalition of forces opposed to all that Mugabe represents.”
Neither faction of the MDC has yet announced whether they will step aside in favour of Makoni and some commentators believe his candidacy will further split the opposition vote.
“What this also means is that the opposition vote will be diluted by the Makoni vote,” said Zhangazha.
But leading sociologist Gordon Chavhunduka said Mugabe had the most to lose as Makoni would mostly appeal to Zanu-PF members who are disillusioned by Zimbabwe’s economic crisis but have little time for the MDC.
“Simba Makoni’s support will be drawn mainly from Zanu-PF and it will weaken Mugabe,” Chavhunduka said.
The former British colony, ruled by Mugabe since independence in 1980, has been in meltdown since Makoni left office in 2003 and is currently beset by an inflation rate of more than 26 000%, the highest in the world. Unemployment also stands at about 80% — AFP