Up to three million Zimbabweans, a quarter of the country’s 12-million strong population, live outside the country, the majority in South Africa.
But exiled Zimbabweans, many of whom are believed to back the opposition, are effectively barred from voting because the Zimbabwean government has rejected opposition demands to allow postal votes.
Although they are not in the thick of Zimbabwe’s struggles, they keenly follow the politics. The Mail & Guardian spoke to a cross-section of Zimbabweans living in exile in Johannesburg.
“[Presidential candidate Simba] Makoni might be [Robert Mugabe’s] project. He will split the urban vote and dilute MDC strongholds,” argues economist and author Luke Zunga, who has lived in South Africa since 1994. Zunga is part of the first wave of Zimbabweans who left when life in the country was still relatively stable. He shares the view held by many Zimbabweans that the split vote suits Mugabe well.
Zunga notes that Zimbabwe’s elite has reservations about Morgan Tsvangirai. “The elite think he is not a technocrat, but [other] leaders in the world are not either,” he says. He is convinced Mugabe “has strangled rural Zimbabwe and might force a win”, adding cynically that “thereafter SADC will declare the Zimbabwe question has been solved”. Zunga predicts “turmoil if Morgan wins”.
Maurice Vambe works as an associate professor of English at Unisa in Pretoria. He advises Zimbabweans to vote regardless of the fact that the playing field is not level “because in practice this does not exist anywhere in the world”. He speculates that Tsvangirai will get about 40% of votes, Mugabe 45% and Makoni 15%.
Vambe’s family in Zimbabwe are not really bothered about the election as they are “busy surviving”. Even though the Mugabe government might not lose power, Vambe is optimistic. “For the second time Mugabe has been challenged. It destroys the myth that Zanu-PF is Zimbabwe.”
Victor*, an IT specialist with a local bank, trots out the well-worn view that most Zimbabweans are in South Africa because of the collapse of the economy. But he doesn’t believe he is integrating well, as outside work he interacts only with fellow Zimbabweans. “There is mistrust, I guess, and perhaps locals feel we have taken their jobs. Although at a professional level such feelings are minimal.”
Victor is nostalgic about life in Zimbabwe. “The quality of life was better in Zimbabwe because it was safe and things used to be affordable,” he says. “Here one worries a lot about crime and the label of being a ‘second-class citizen’.”
He feels disenfranchised and would have liked to vote because he feels it is his right and because “the diaspora’s remittances have contributed significantly to the survival of Zimbabwe”. He thinks the election is a farce. “The results will be rigged unless there is a clear split in loyalty in Zanu and the army,” he says.
Shirley*, from Harare, wants Mugabe to lose the election: “We come here because of money, there are no jobs in Zimbabwe.” Shirley, whose daughter lives in Harare with her parents, says she will not return to Zimbabwe to vote. “What if Mugabe wins again,” she asks in an exasperated voice. “I will not be able to come back.”
* Not their real names