Mao Zedong is dead in China, but the Great Helmsman is alive and kicking in Nepal. What’s more, the Himalayan Maoists have come to power not with the barrel of the gun but have been voted into government.
Nepal’s leftist guerrillas fought a brutal 10-year war from 1996 to 2006 to try to overthrow the monarchy. They agreed to a ceasefire two years ago and since then were preparing carefully for elections that were held on April 10. Results so far show that the Maoists were more successful than even they had ever imagined.
The lesson from Nepal for revolutionaries around the world is this: what the Maoists could not accomplish with 10 years of war and 15 000 killed they achieved through a non-violent electoral process.
The rest of the world has found it bizarre that Nepalis should vote so overwhelmingly for an ideology that has been discredited everywhere and even abandoned in the land of Mao’s birth. But the victory didn’t mean that Nepal’s 17,6-million eligible voters were all Maoists, or wanted a People’s Republic.
Most people voted for the Maoists because they wanted change, they were sick and tired of the incompetence of the other democratic parties. Nepal’s mostly impoverished people voted for a force that they thought was the most capable of lifting living standards, giving them affordable healthcare and education, roads and jobs. They also voted the Maoists into government so they wouldn’t go back to the jungles, rewarding them for laying down their arms.
In his victory speech this week Maoist chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who goes by the nom de guerre ”Prachanda”, sounded magnanimous and conciliatory. Heavily garlanded and face painted red with vermilion, he said his party’s victory reflected the overwhelming desire of Nepalis for peace and development. He reiterated his party’s commitment to multiparty democracy and asked the international community not to be suspicious of the Maoists’ intentions.
The speech went some way to allay doubts about whether the Maoists have really made a complete transition from an armed guerrilla force to a mainstream party. However, Prachanda did not formally renounce violence, something the international community wants him to do.
The fact that Maoist cadres beat up Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat two days after he won the election in his constituency doesn’t bode well for their image. It proved to many, who had misgivings about Maoists’ intentions, that the party still adheres to the tactics of violence and intimidation.
When they form the government, possibly with the participation of other parties, the Maoists immediately face the challenge of delivering on their promise of raising living standards. More immediately, they will have to deal with the soaring food costs. Petroleum prices need to be increased, but the government can’t afford subsidies and will not want to antagonise voters right away.
This was not a general election, but one that voted for a 601-member assembly that will draft the new constitution. Despite their win, the Maoists are unlikely to attain a two-thirds majority that would allow them to go it alone.
The drafting process for the new constitution, which is expected to take two years, will necessarily have to be through compromise and consultation.
The constituent assembly will also serve as a parallel parliament for the next two years and will oversee a government led by the Maoists. The first order of business will be to formally abolish the monarchy, and this is supposed to happen soon after the assembly convenes next month.
The Maoists will then want to push through some showcase legislation to prove to the electorate that they are serious about reform. They will want to get started on the controversial process of integrating their army with the national army. The two fought a bruising war, and there is a lot of resistance within the Nepal Army to combine the two forces.
Then there are the longer-term issues of the constituent assembly will have to deliberate: what kind of federalism the country should have; whether to have a Westminster-style system or a bicameral one; how to reconcile the competing demands for representation from Nepal’s 103 ethnic groups.
This state restructuring process is not going to be easy because it is happening in Asia’s poorest country, where people’s expectations are very high. And if people don’t see an immediate improvement in their lives, the election victory for the Maoists could easily turn sour.
But the past two years have shown that the Nepalis value political freedom and democracy and know that they command their own destiny. The Maoists have been given their chance to prove themselves.
Kunda Dixit is the editor of the Nepali Times