It is estimated that 5,6-million South Africans are infected with HIV/Aids in 2008, said the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) on Tuesday.
In a statement, the society said its projections from the ASSA 2003 Aids and demographic model provided a projected estimate of HIV-positive South Africans in 2008.
The HIV prevalence rates from the ASSA 2003 model are ” roughly consistent” with the national prevalence survey conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC).
ASSA said its mortality estimates were similar to the recent statistics released in February by Statistics South Africa.
The ASSA 2003 model estimates that 20% of South Africans between the ages 20 and 64 are HIV-positive.
The model also reveals that 510 000 new HIV infections will occur this year, while 370 000 Aids related deaths will occur in the same period.
The model shows that 650 000 South Africans have full blown Aids.
KwaZulu-Natal province has the highest number of HIV-positive people in the country, recording a record high of 1,6-million.
The Western Cape has the lowest, at 300 000.
The society stressed that although the overall figure was lower than the Development Bank of South Africa’s (DBSA’s) estimates, the situation was severe.
DBSA has announced that a report on HIV statistics which had been released to the public had not been approved and validated. The Sunday Independent reported the statistics released by DBSA recorded that more than 7,6-million South Africans were HIV-positive.
This figure was 2,2-million more than the Department of Health’s figures for 2007. – Sapa