The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) may seem hopelessly undecided about whether to fight or boycott the presidential run-off against Robert Mugabe, but sources confirm it will go to the polls in run-off election, the date of which still has to be announced.
MDC secretary general Tendai Biti continues to insist that ”we won the election”.
But he also said the party’s exiled leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, would make an announcement on the run-off this Saturday. ”It’s futile to talk about a run-off, but if we have to embarrass Robert Mugabe again we will do so,” he said.
Tsvangirai beat Mugabe in the initial poll by 47,9% to 43,2%.
What remains unclear is whether the MDC will attach conditions to its participation. Biti insisted that if ”there is to be a run-off election it has to be held in conditions that respect the rule of law”, adding that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) would have to play a supervisory role.
The MDC has no illusions about the uphill task it faces. Biti, who has not visited Zimbabwe since he left at the beginning of last month, said that ”fascism continues in Zimbabwe” as the ”regime embarks on a vicious mode of retribution”.
Nelson Chamisa, the party’s Zimbabwe-based spokesperson, acknowledged that ”the conditions have always been unfavourable but are now at their worst”.
The MDC ”had a humanitarian crisis on its hands to address”, he said, referring to the hundreds of supporters who have fled election-linked violence and sought shelter at Harvest House, the party’s headquarters.
Jestina Mukoko, national director of the Zimbabwe Peace Project, a civic organisation, confirmed that ”many people are being harassed and displaced” and that if the violence continued ”many people will be disenfranchised”.
Mukoko said that ongoing violent intimidation presented the MDC with grave logistical problems, as the election would be ward-based. Those who had fled their homes would not be able to vote.
Most of the violence was concentrated in Mashonaland east, west, central and in the Midlands provinces, former Zanu-PF strongholds where the MDC had scored significant victories.
Many party supporters who openly wore MDC regalia during the first round of polling are now being targeted. She estimated that up to 3 000 families had been displaced by violence.
An immediate election could work in two ways, analysts said. The MDC might lose some of the support it recently gained as the voters buckle under the onslaught of Zanu-PF militia. Alternatively, Zanu-PF’s first parliamentary and presidential election defeats have left it in disarray and could embolden voters to deliver a coup de grâce.
The MDC could also cash in on the wave of popular anger against Zanu-PF. One analyst predicted that the longer it takes to stage elections the slimmer the MDC’s chances of victory — unless the elections are supervised by SADC.
In one sense the MDC is in a strong position: either it wins or it loses on a playing field the world, and increasingly Africa, will see as grossly uneven.
A victorious Mugabe would also have to explain how factors other than violence enabled him to increase his share of the vote by more than 6% — particularly as the other first-round candidates, Simba Makoni and Arthur Mutambara, have pledged to support Tsvangirai in the run-off.
Rindai Chipfunde-Vava, national director of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, said the MDC has little choice but to contest the run-off, as a refusal to do so would hand another five-year term to Mugabe by default.
But she conceded the adverse conditions. ”They have to participate in the elections. although the ongoing violence might work against them.”