Britain’s opposition Conservative Party were poised on Thursday to gain a parliamentary seat in mid-term for the first time in 26 years.
The by-election in the northern town of Crewe, triggered by the death of the constituency’s member of Parliament, is being closely watched as an indicator of Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s diminishing appeal 11 months after he took over from Tony Blair.
Brown’s popularity ratings have collapsed since last autumn after he backed away from calling an early election. Some in his party are questioning whether he is the best man to lead the ruling Labour party into a general election, due by 2010.
Voters will choose who is to fill a seat held for 34 years by Gwyneth Dunwoody, a popular, no-nonsense Labour traditionalist who died last month.
Her daughter Tamsin (49) is fighting to keep the seat for Labour but Conservative Edward Timpson (34) led by 13 points in a poll by the firm ComRes in Tuesday’s Independent newspaper.
Voters in Crewe said rising fuel and food costs were major concerns. Rachel Harrison (36) who recently became a single mother, said: ”Things are very tough. The shopping, the petrol is ridiculous, just the basics like fruit.” Taxi driver Kevin Scott, a 40-year-old father of five, said: ”In the last seven to 10 days, fuel in this area has gone up six pence a litre. To taxi drivers this is a lot of money.”
Losing the seat would have little effect on Brown’s 67-member majority in Parliament, but the psychological impact of defeat could be heavy.
Brown is already on the back foot after a rout in elections for local council posts including London’s mayoralty and a revolt among Labour parliamentarians over a botched tax reform.
The economy, regarded as Brown’s strong point after he spent a decade as Blair’s finance minister, has been hit by falling house prices, rising inflation and a credit crunch that is hurting consumers.
Campaigning has been intense and some locals complained about the volume of party literature pushed through their doors.
Conservative leader David Cameron has visited the constituency four times in the run-up to polling day. Brown has stayed away, insisting this is due to a tradition that prime ministers do not visit by-election campaigns.
The constituency crosses class lines, combining the affluent and picturesque market town of Nantwich with its working-class neighbour Crewe, a major rail junction. – Reuters