If this is the autumn of Trevor Manuel’s political career, he has a strange way of showing it. This week he laid another plank in what is taking shape as a platform for economic reform to boost growth, increase employment levels — and perhaps forestall the kind of violence that has racked Gauteng townships this week.
Speaking after the Cape Town launch of a new report from the international Commission on Growth and DevelopÂÂment (CGD), Manuel made it clear that he sees the violence as a side effect of underdevelopment rather than as shadowy ”third force” activity — the explanation preferred by some of his Cabinet colleagues.
”In an environment where there are high levels of vulnerability, people lean on one another through nuclear family, clan, village, language group, nation. So we need to understand the vulnerability and the trigger mechanism.”
Citing attacks on Somali shopkeepers in the Cape, he said these were clearly triggered by competition. Somalis, anxious not to be seen exploiting host communities and able to live frugally, had undercut prices offered by locals.
”It speaks to vulnerability and I think that is part of what we are living through.”
For Manuel the violence is directly linked to the call in the CGD’s Growth Report for a pragmatic set of policies on economic growth to replace the 1980s ”Washington consensus”. This was also the aim of the Harvard panel of economists who recently advised the government on economic strategy.
The panel recommended labour-market reforms to boost youth employment, while the CGD report calls for more flexible employment reguÂÂlations, particularly in the export sector, to boost job creation in manufacturing.
Both stress the importance of better educational performance, something that has frustrated Manuel for years, as government’s spending on schools has soared but results have declined or stagnated.
”To paraphrase [Harvard panel chair] Ricardo Hausman: you have an 18-year-old and he can’t do maths, you wait a few years and you have 30-year-old who can’t do maths and has less hope. What do you want to do about it?
”There are young people out there who just have no hope. Mines are no longer employing you, farms are no longer employing you — there is just the sense of alienation. You are there, there are many others like you, you know that you are much poorer and you try to link that fault to someone else.”
This implies a far more pragmatic conversation about labour-market reform and government measures that get better results from the education system. Manuel is visibly frustrated by what he sees as the capture of economic debate by ideological blocs. ”What are the major issues that confront us as a country?” he said.
”We still measure what we spend, not what the money buys. That should not be a political debate.
”The ANC’s January 8 statement listed some non-negotiables for education: teachers in the classroom, teaching, learners in the classroom, learning. Is it happening?”
The suggestion is that Education Minister Naledi Pandor needs to stiffen her spine.
”It might mean staring down the trade unions and really taking the issue forward. That calls for leadership that is engaging — that talks to stakeholders like the unions — but tough enough to implement when the chips are down.”
The CGD’s Growth Report makes it clear that strong, credible leadership is a consistent feature of countries with sustained high growth rates.
”Policymakers have to choose a growth strategy, communicate their goals to the public and convince people that the future rewards are worth the thrift, effort and economic upheaval,” it says.
Will Manuel, who did just that when Gear was adopted, still be around to lead after next year’s elections? He wasn’t saying.
”One hopes there will be the same kind of hunger [for growth]. Maybe my successor, whoever she may be, needs to be roughed up the same way I was by the press.
”I would get up every morning and say: ‘I’m going to prove these bastards wrong.’”
The press has now bought into Manuel’s approach; it is the new ANC leadership that he needs to convince. The Growth Report offers some ammunition: it refuses to anathematise unorthodox strategies like currency management and industrial policy and also emphasises the critical role of social inclusion and welfare.
Manuel said the report, which is remarkably jargon-free, will sell itself. ”It is so incredibly nonÂÂthreatening, it is just applied logic. What is the problem, what do we need to do?”
If logic prevails, he almost seems to hint, he may be around a bit longer — perhaps in a bigger job.