Barack Obama is overwhelmingly Britain’s choice to be the next US president, five times more popular than his Republican rival, John McCain, a Guardian/ICM poll shows on Monday.
Carried out ahead of the Democratic candidate’s visit to Britain next week, the poll reveals that 53% feel certain he would make the best president, with only 11% favouring McCain; 36% declined to express an opinion.
Obama will soon set off on a marathon trip that will take in Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, Jordan, Germany, France and, lastly, Britain. The exact timing of the visit to Iraq and Afghanistan is being kept under wraps for security reasons, but he is expected in Britain on July 25 or 26. His campaign team and the British government had originally discussed making the United Kingdom his first stop but, citing diary clashes, rescheduled it as the last.
It will be his first trip overseas — apart from a holiday weekend in the Caribbean — since he launched his bid for the White House in February last year. The aim is to counter accusations from McCain that he lacks foreign experience.
Obama’s poll lead may have as much to do with his high profile and recognition factor as it does his policies. But it underlines the desire among US allies to see a change of political direction there after eight years of George Bush. Obama’s campaign team hopes to use the European leg of the trip to press home to the US public that replacing Bush with the Democratic candidate should see America’s popularity in Europe restored.
McCain is less well known than Obama, despite having visited Britain several times and attending the House of Commons and the Conservative party conference.
The survey, carried out late last week, found that Obama’s support is strongest among male voters — 57% of whom want him to be president. There are small regional variations in support: 50% back him in the south-east, against 57% in the north of England. But overall enthusiasm for an Obama presidency is solid across people of all ages and backgrounds. Unlike the US, there is no evidence of young Britons being keener on Obama than older people.
Obama, who met British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in Washington earlier this year, is scheduled to meet him again. In keeping with diplomatic etiquette, he also plans to meet the Tory leader, David Cameron.
He wants to fit in time to thank British-based Americans who have been raising funds for his campaign and for a photo-opportunity that would win him airtime on US television. The centrepiece of his visit to Europe will be Berlin, where he plans to deliver a speech about establishing a new transatlantic relationship. Obama’s extensive foreign policy team have promised a complete rethink for the post-Bush era. He will stress that, in contrast with Bush, he will listen to Europe. According to an adviser, he is also likely, to avoid being portrayed as soft, to call on Germany and France to play a bigger military role in Afghanistan.
There is confusion about how long Obama has spent in Europe before. Some reports claim he has only spent 24 hours in total, but he told a local paper in the US last year: ”I’ve travelled extensively in Europe … I love Europe.”
Obama, who likes being compared with John F Kennedy, opted for Berlin in part because of the former president’s much-quoted speech outside the town hall, in which he declared ”Ich bin ein Berliner.”
Pictures with foreign leaders are useful during election campaigns in establishing foreign policy credentials. But the main purpose of his trip is to be filmed in Iraq with US troops. Obama, who has pledged an early withdrawal of most American troops from Iraq, has been in Iraq before but has been repeatedly taunted by McCain about his failure to visit the country since becoming a presidential candidate.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1 009 adults aged 18+ on July 9-10. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. – guardian.co.uk