The trade activity index (TAI) picked up further in August 2008 to 46 after registering 43 in July, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said on Friday.
This followed on a steady decline from 50 in February 2008 to 42 in June 2008.
”Although more optimistic, these levels continue to reflect trade conditions in negative territory,” the SACCI said.
The sub-index on current sales volumes, after recording a relatively solid level of 55 in February 2008, deteriorated progressively to 42 in June 2008.
It improved slightly to 45 in July 2008 and to 49 in August 2008.
The new orders sub-index also confirmed the improved mood and increased to 44 in August 2008 from 42 in July 2008, the SACCI said.
The trade expectations index (TEI), which explores trade conditions six months ahead, gradually declined to 46 in June 2008 from a high of 58 in February 2008.
The TEI improved to 56 in August 2008 from 50 in July 2008.
”It appears as though the downward trend, which started from a high of 70 in January 2007 to 46 in May and June 2008, has turned,” the SACCI said.
The sub-index on sales expectations picked up to 56 in July 2008 and accelerated to 62 in August 2008.
The index on expected new orders improved by seven index points to 58 in August 2008 after recording 51 in July 2008 and 46 in June 2008 and May 2008, the SACCI said.
Inflationary pressures appeared to be easing as the index on selling prices remained at 68 in August 2008 from 74 in June 2008 — still eight points above the relatively low index level of December 2007, the SACCI added.
The input price index was down to 77 in August 2008 after recording 81 in July 2008 and 84 in June 2008.
This index was still ten points higher than the low of 67 in December 2007.
The indices on expected input and sales prices also declined.
The SACCI said this suggested that prices could rise ”at a slower rate over the next six months [survey period] as global fuel and food prices decrease from high levels earlier in 2008”.
The August 2008 employment index improved to 46 after being as low as 42 in June 2008.
Employment prospects in the trade environment recovered to 51 in August 2008 from the 46 in July 2008, ”thereby crossing over from negative to positive territory for the first time since March 2008”. — Sapa