South African President Thabo Mbeki’s resignation has raised new concerns about the fragile power-sharing deal he brokered just one week ago in neighbouring Zimbabwe, analysts said on Wednesday.
Although the deal was clinched last week, tough negotiations are still under way on forming a Cabinet that will bring together Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe’s ruling Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
The deal is meant to end eight years of political unrest that has devastated the once-prosperous country, with 80% of the population now living in poverty and crushed by the burden of world’s highest inflation rate at 11,2-million percent.
An alliance of civic groups, the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, said that Mbeki’s resignation came at ”a fragile time”, with the Cabinet list up in the air.
”Considering that Mbeki was the sole mediator in the Zimbabwe agreement, Zimbabweans are now asking what the future of the country holds,” the coalition said in a statement.
”Zimbabweans from all walks of life were banking on the settlement to rescue the country from the socioeconomic and political abyss it is entrenched in.”
MDC spokesperson Nelson Chamisa insisted that Mbeki’s departure, effective on Thursday, would not spell disaster for the Zimbabwe deal.
”There is no danger posed to the agreement by President Mbeki’s departure,” said Chamisa.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is ”the guarantor of the deal. In the event that we encounter any impediments, we have recourse by way of approaching SADC and the African Union.”
The SADC has already urged Mbeki to stay on as its official mediator in Zimbabwe.
The African National Congress (ANC), which forced Mbeki to resign at the weekend, has also asked him to keep working on the Zimbabwe deal.
So far Mbeki has not announced if he will continue as a negotiator.
Analysts said that while the Zimbabwe deal was not in danger of falling apart, implementing the pact could prove difficult without pressure from Mbeki.
The terms of the agreement allow Mugabe to appoint a Cabinet if his ruling Zanu-PF and the two factions of the MDC fail to agree on its make-up, political analyst Lovemore Madhuku said.
”Mbeki will not be able to fly to Harare like he has been able to. It gives Mugabe more room to proceed with implementing terms of the deal if there is no agreement on the allocation of Cabinet ministries,” he said.
Mugabe and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai signed the deal on September 15 after months of tough negotiations, following international condemnation of presidential elections marred by deadly violence against opposition supporters.
Zanu-PF lost its parliamentary majority for the first time to Tsvangirai’s MDC in March elections, while Mugabe failed to win presidential elections outright.
Tsvangirai is now set to become prime minister in the new government, but his party’s two factions are still haggling with Mugabe’s Zanu-PF over key ministerial posts.
The entire deal is also clouded by doubts over whether the bitter rivals will be able to work together to salvage the country’s economy.
Political analyst Charles Mangongera said that even if Mbeki kept up his mediation, his authority to press the parties into agreement would now be more limited.
”He would have had more weight as head of state,” Mangongera said. ”He can no longer put pressure on Mugabe, which he managed to do as head of state.”
John Makumbe, a political scientist at the University of Zimbabwe, said power-sharing might collapse without Mbeki.
”He was able to apply pressure here and there and get them to sign the agreement. Without him I think each group is going to stick to its guns and that would be unhealthy … the whole agreement could remain strictly on paper, he said.