The White House election could be decided in just 90 minutes. The presidential debate, still scheduled for Friday in Oxford, Mississippi, provides the first opportunity for voters to see John McCain and Barack Obama together and finally make up their minds.
Almost 20% of the electorate are still undecided, according to opinion surveys, and both Democratic and Republican pollsters agree that the debate, set to attract a record television audience, could settle doubts about the two candidates.
In a rare show of consensus, the pollsters agree that the main question Obama has to deal with is whether, given his lack of experience, he is credible as commander-in-chief.
The main question about McCain is whether he represents a continuation of President George Bush’s administration, which would be fatal for his hopes.
What gives the debate an extra edge is that neither Obama nor McCain, though good communicators, are good debaters. The debate has been further complicated by McCain’s political manouevring in the last 48 hours, which has given the Republican candidate an extra edge.
Looking at previous debates, Professor Alan Schroeder, author of Presidential Debates: Fifty Years of High-Risk TV, said: ”We never know what is going to happen in live events. The outcome is often different from what we anticipated.” The debates offered a rare opportunity to see the candidates when they were not sticking carefully to prepared speeches, he said. ”We get a little more sense of the individual and how he behaves under pressure.”
The topic for the first debate was switched, as a result of Obama’s lobbying, from domestic policy to foreign affairs, mainly because his team was well aware that the biggest question would be the commander-in-chief one — and that most floating voters would make up their mind during the first of the three debates.
Obama has been preparing hard for this, refining his arguments on Iraq (he opposed the invasion), on Iran (he is prepared to negotiate directly with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad), and a host of other foreign policy issues.
But the debate, despite the topic, will also be about the economy and McCain will claim that he, rather the Democratic candidate, demonstrated leadership on that issue this week by calling on Obama to suspend political campaigning and join McCain in helping to get a government bail-out plan through Congress.
Daniel Schnur, McCain’s communications director during the 2000 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination against George Bush, sees the debate as more important for Obama than McCain. ”To a large degree, this first debate is about Obama. Voters are intrigued. They are not sure he can handle the challenges. In 90 minutes, he will have the chance to reassure voters that he is comfortable and capable with these issues. I think the first debate will be decisive.”
Schnur said McCain could not allow Obama to glide through the debate. He compared the debate to the 1980 one when Ronald Reagan, like Obama, had to persuade voters he was up to the job. ”Reagan did not dazzle or dominate, but he reassured voters he could handle high office. It is not a high bar for Obama, unless McCain can throw him off his game.”
Can McCain convince voters he will not be a continuation of Bush? Schroeder said Bush would be ”lurking as a backdrop to this debate”. While McCain would distance himself as much as possible from the president, he expected Obama to raise the Bush question as often as he could.
McCain is one of the few Republicans who can argue with some conviction — given his history as a party dissident — that he offers different policies from those pursued by Bush during the past eight years.
Although it is a hard sell, given public antipathy towards Bush and the Republican party, McCain is presenting himself as a vehicle for change and reform. Republican-leaning analysts argue that making Sarah Palin his vice-presidential candidate has helped in terms of making him look plausible as an agent for change.
On the downside for McCain is the image he will present on stage. McCain is 72 and looks it, in contrast with Obama, at 47. Schroeder said: ”McCain looks like a man whose time has come and gone. Obama has the advantage of youth.”
Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, and his opposite number on the Republican side, Neil Newhouse, in a joint briefing with journalists in Washington last week agreed about the importance of the two themes: Obama as commander-in-chief, and fears of McCain as a continuation of Bush. Both agreed that whoever won the argument would be the next president.
First debate
Focus on foreign policy. Obama and McCain will be standing behind podiums answering questions from moderator Jim Lehrer of PBS television. The red lights and buzzers that signalled time limits in past years are gone, so Lehrer will have to strictly ration the candidates’ time during the five-minute ”discussion period” after each question.
Second debate
A freewheeling ”town-hall” format with both men free to roam the stage during their two-minute answers. Undecided voters from all walks of life, chosen by the Gallup polling firm, will be called on by NBC anchor Tom Brokaw to question the candidates on any subject matter.
Third debate
Focus on domestic issues such as healthcare and education. Obama and McCain will be sitting round a table as they take questions from CBS anchor Bob Schieffer, who will also have to cut off the candidates if they exceed the time allotted for each question. – guardian.co.uk