The axing of Thabo Mbeki has triggered a sense of disorientation and terror in the hearts of the middle classes, both white and black. The Jacob Zuma juggernaut is frightening for these classes.
A total stranger perched herself on my table and started talking gibberish last Saturday. I somehow managed to make out references to an imminent anarchy under the Zuma presidency and plans to leave the country if Mbeki doesn’t form his own party. Then the dazed stranger asked: “What day is it today?”
The disorientation of the chattering classes indicates a larger problem, a disconnection with the wretched existence of the majority of poor people who remain wondering what 1994 has brought them. Their circumstances make an eloquent argument for the performance of our exiting intellectual president. In many townships and squatter camps the axing of Mbeki was met with jubilation.
Truth is the ANC is likely to win with a bigger majority in the next election and any talk of a direct presidential election can serve only Zuma. But analysts have missed the point again.
The axing of Mbeki now is a politically smart move, actually it is an act of pure political genius, as the election results next year should show.
The irony of it all is that those who axed Mbeki are not aware of just what a great thing they have achieved. It is accidentally ingenious. Why would the electorate reward the post-Polokwane leadership?
The ANC has inadvertently enacted a spectacle and a drama of historic proportions through its leadership wars. This drama plays itself out as a mortal combat between good and evil. For the excluded majority, Zuma represents the good and Mbeki the evil they feel in their stomachs. For the middle classes and whites in general the reverse is true.
The political effect of the drama within the ANC is to crowd out other voices and players. The ANC has catapulted itself into a monopoly player through ongoing scandal, crisis and political intrigue. From the courts to the axing of the president of the country and Cabinet resignations, the ANC has been able to raise itself above its record in government and has structured the engagement with politics and indeed the coming elections as a moment of “liberation” politics again. In this context voters vote for what is perceived to be good, not track record, policy or manifesto.
The electioneering process from now on can be conducted only in the narrow political discourse cut by the ANC. The resignation from Cabinet of the Azapo president must also be seen in this context. Azapo, it would seem, hopes to cash in on Mbeki’s demeanour of respectability and dignity, so amply displayed in his last address to the nation. There are no alternatives, no critical evaluation of the ANC’s 15 years in power. There is actually no space to engage in meaningful politics of questioning and critical assessment. The internal rivalry in the ANC has kept opposition parties out of politics.
The middle classes and the “analysts” are so out of touch with the vibe of the poor majority that they risk a major electoral humiliation should a new party be formed by the Mbeki entourage. The post-Polokwane leadership is equally out of touch to think it will be voted in because it represents the interests of the poor.
The poor are also out of touch to ascribe messianic powers of deliverance to Zuma.
We live in a society of the spectacle, inaugurated by Mbeki with his truth subverting intellectualism. Mbeki ate the head of the ANC, now the headless monster has gone berserk.
In the short term Zuma will help the ANC win the elections, possibly with an increased majority. The middle classes, whites and markets will eventually get it, that the Zuma administration is not about changing policy or serving the poor. The new regime can’t give the poor what the Mbeki regime couldn’t give from the same policies.
The SACP will cut down on its rhetoric of ending inflation targeting and the “independence” of the Reserve Bank. Communists will serve capital just fine.
The main challenge is this, what does the Zuma administration do with the groundswell of protest by the excluded who are demanding delivery and justice? They have started by blocking roads and burning tyres. Will he open fire or will he change policy? I put my money on the former.
Andile Mngxitama is the co-editor of Biko Lives!