Imagine the ANC losing 10% of the 10-million South Africans who voted for it in the last national and local government elections in 2004 and 2006.
Is that a pipe dream or a realistic possibility? It will not happen for as long as the ruling party has to compete only against the existing opposition parties. The official opposition, the DA, won only 13% of voter support in those elections.
But the new ANC, whatever name it takes, represents the most serious threat to the ANC since 1994. It will essentially be a party run by ANC members, embracing the ANC’s vision and values and competing in the same space with Africa’s oldest liberation movement.
The ANC will undoubtedly come back as the ruling party next year but its confused reaction shows that it has been rattled and does not know whether to dismiss the rebels, as Transport Minister Jeff Radebe initially threatened, or offer them an olive branch, as treasurer Mathews Phosa subsequently did.
A conversation with the inner circle of the new initiative reveals that it hopes to capitalise on the 40% of delegates who voted for Thabo Mbeki at Polokwane last year. A former youth leader said it was not true that the new party had lost momentum by not launching immediately after Polokwane. Instead, he insisted that the Jacob Zuma faction’s subsequent takeover of the ANC Youth League congress and provincial ANC conferences, including the removal of premiers associated with Mbeki, showed that the ANC leadership has taken a decision to drive out Mbeki supporters rather than accommodate them.
He said the ANC members associated with Mbeki were also aware that they were unlikely to make it on to the lists for provincial legislatures and Parliament next year. This would leave them out in the cold when many of them are still young enough to make a contribution.
The youth leader said people who had been mistreated since Polokwane were to be found in all the provinces. In theory, at least, 40% of the ANC membership is up for grabs by the new party. But the source said it was the South African public that the new party would target most. ”It’s not the party members who put political parties into power — it’s the public. How the new party presents itself to the broader community and how it’s received will be crucial.” The youth leader said a new party does not need a year to make an impact in elections. Two or three months is sufficient.
The only way the ANC could avoid facing the rebels at the polls was to co-opt them into its decision-making structures and promise them positions after the elections next year.
The ANC has opted for a charm offensive to limit the pool of people Mosiuoa Lekota can win over. But it has also given a licence to radicals in the ruling alliance, including communist leader Blade Nzimande and the Youth League, to knock the rebels around. Within the ANC the perception is that the group is much smaller than initially expected. An ANC insider asked what had happened to former ministers Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, Essop Pahad and Ronnie Kasrils.
”They should be the people giving this initiative some gravitas, but they’re staying clear. They can’t claim that other heavyweights will join in later. The fact is that when you start, you need to have an impact.”
Some in the ANC believe that Lekota’s gung-ho leadership style could alienate other leaders thinking of joining and the public.
They also said his launch in Sandton through a ”white” medium (Radio 702) was not ”strategic” and would not endear him to the ANC working-class supporters he is courting — ”unless he is trying to be a black Helen Zille, targeting the middle class”. They also believe his new ”coalition of the wounded” will need more than the six months remaining before the election to take off.
The highest levels of disaffection with the current ANC leadership under Zuma has come from the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and the Northern Cape. But the general public’s sentiment and potential voting behaviour is unclear at this early stage. The ANC majority in the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and Northern Cape could be affected. But nationally Lekota will exceed expectations if his grouping wins the support of anything approaching 10% of the electorate.