The ANC was dealt a snotklap in this week’s by-elections in the Western Cape, winning only three of the 27 polls in the province — while the Congress of the People (Cope) scooped 10.
Describing the results as disastrous, ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe said: ”This is an early signal that the ANC needs to redirect its energy and focus in the province — we have not given up on the Western Cape yet.”
He said that ”organisational weaknesses” in provincial structures were partly to blame, calling the Electoral Court’s ruling that had prevented 12 ANC candidates from contesting wards because they missed the registration deadline ”a Christmas present to the other parties at the expense of the ANC”.
The results were made more humiliating for the ANC by the fact that the breakaway Congress of the People won 10 wards in its debut electoral test.
Cope won 10 wards, the DA nine and the ANC three, with the balance split between the Independent Democrats and other smaller parties.
However, the real winner was the DA, which took four wards from the ANC in polls contested by the ruling party, and another five in traditional ANC strongholds.
The DA’s biggest victory lies in the inroads it made in black areas it won from the ANC, including 90% support in Mitchells Plain, which includes the black township of Gugulethu. The ANC’s Cape Town metro caucus has now been reduced to 73 seats in a 210-member council.
The DA now has 94 seats in Cape Town and has an outright majority in two councils it formerly ruled in coalition — Cedarberg and Theewaterskloof. In Overberg a DA/ID coalition now takes over from the ANC.
The 27 by-elections were triggered by either the expulsion or resignation of ANC councillors because they joined or sympathised with Cope.
Both Cope and the ANC insist they had to fight the by-elections with one hand tied behind their backs — Cope because its candidates had to stand as independents who could not use the party’s name or logo, which the ANC is contesting in court, and the ANC because it was barred from fielding candidates in 12 wards after registering late.
A last-minute ANC application to the Electoral Court in Bloemfontein failed to secure the suspension of the by-elections, meaning it could not fight 12 of the 27 polls.
Hundreds of ANC supporters flooded areas where they could not vote, demanding that voters and supporters boycott the ballot.
In Philippi ANC supporters in bright yellow T-shirts stood outside polling stations distributing boycott pamphlets and singing Umshini wam, Jacob Zuma’s signature song.
Two pensioners told the Mail & Guardian they found the campaign intimidating. ”We’re not walking through those people to vote — they’ll know we don’t vote for the ANC if we go inside,” they said.
DA leader Helen Zille and Mbulelo Ncedane, Cope’s Western Cape coordinator, have laid complaints with the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) about intimidation of voters.
The by-election was also marked by a low voter turnout, with the highest 23% and the lowest 8,4%. The IEC’s provincial head, Courtney Sampson, attributed this to the ANC calling on voters not to vote in certain wards and to the taxi violence that disrupted the city this week.
”Generally, the election was peaceful, but we’ve received reports of active intimidation in Cape Town. Unfortunately the court judgement barring the ANC from participating in certain wards came very late and they had to inform their people that they couldn’t vote for their candidates, which complicated matters.”
Describing the result as ”helluva encouraging”, Zille said it showed that DA support in black areas had grown from 0,3% to 25% and that Cope ”is not eating into our support base as everybody has been predicting, but into the ANC’s voters.”
”Second, the ANC and the ID are the two parties who got bliksemed [beaten up] in this election. The DA is well on track to win the province next year.”
Cope’s Ncedane said the party is ”more than happy” with its performance. ”It shows that we’re going to rule the Western Cape in 2009 — we contested this election with no infrastructure. The electorate in the Cape has spoken: they’re finished with the ANC.”
ANC spokesperson Jesse Duarte and the party’s provincial leaders persisted in claiming that the ANC was the victim of ”a technical problem with the IEC” and would take its case to the Constitutional Court where it filed papers this week.
Constitutional law professor Pierre de Vos said this week the ANC has an ”excellent chance” of the Constitutional Court hearing its case, as ”the right to vote for the party of your choice is a constitutional right”.
But De Vos emphasised that the onus would be on the ANC to show the IEC erred. ”Otherwise what they’re asking for is for a special dispensation. Just because you’re the government doesn’t mean you don’t have to abide by the rules.”
De Vos said if the Constitutional Court rules in the ANC’s favour, new by-elections would be held.
In the rest of South Africa by-election results suggested little change in voter sentiment, with the ANC holding eight seats comfortably — three in KwaZulu-Natal, two in Gauteng, two in Free State and one in Northern Cape — the IFP holding four and the DA holding a seat in Howick.
One exception was a contested ward in Ladysmith, snatched by the ANC from the IFP by a narrow majority.