Governments worldwide know they’re in trouble when the number of people on welfare begins to exceed the working population.
Numerous developed countries worry about caring for ageing populations. In South Africa the burden is the opposite: explosive population growth, in part exacerbated by the vagaries of HIV/Aids, is seeing welfare recipients far outnumber taxpayers.
Economist Mike Schussler says that 5,3-million taxpayers support 13-million welfare recipients. This is expected to jump to 14-million during the next budget cycle as the age for child welfare recipients is raised to 18.
This means that about 30% of the population will get a regular income without working. Welfare for the present budget is already the second-highest item — at R105-billion after education at R121-billion.
Social security spending dwarfs other big items such as police (R42-billion), health (R75-billion) and transport (R71-billion). So many people are on welfare now that every taxpayer supports an average of 2,4 people.
“I can’t think of any country that has so many welfare recipients,” says Schussler, explaining that the Germans get worried if the ratio of one working person to one pensioner is exceeded.
Many countries provide support to the aged and disabled. In South Africa 2,2-million and 1,4-million people respectively benefit from this support.
The amounts we are talking about are not large: R940 a month (R31 a day) this year for pensioners and the disabled and R215 a month (R7 a day) per child. But multiply by an expected 14-million beneficiaries this year and you get a huge bill to meet, in excess of R100-billion just in welfare payments.
South Africa offers limited unemployment assistance through the UIF to workers who have been previously employed, but the welfare payments do not target adults. They are specifically for child support.
Unemployment fuels the problem, as jobless parents are unable to feed their children. StatsSA figures from its 2006 housing survey, released at a conference on children this week, show 3,7-million children are orphans because their parents are dead or absent.
It shows that 68% of children (12,3-million) live in households where the total monthly income is less than R1 200. In many cases social grants are a key part of this income.
The problem is clearly both multi-faceted and deeply rooted in poverty. How do you tackle a challenge as big as this?
Quality education as part of a broad development initiative might work in the longer term. Policy initiatives promote the ABCs (abstinence, be faithful and condomise) and aim to deliver social services, but the reality I’m told, is that the problem is getting worse. The children are having children.