Political unrest in Madagascar will take centre stage at a special regional summit on Monday in Swaziland where leaders are also set to finalise an economic recovery package for Zimbabwe.
The 15-nation Southern African Development Community is expected to condemn the ouster of Madagascan President Marc Ravalomanana earlier this month which saw the country’s membership of the African Union suspended.
Analysts say however the regional body, traditionally loath to take serious action against members who step out of line, would probably issue a statement urging the return of power to the legitimately elected president.
”Apart from that, they do not have much they can do to enforce their objection to the coup,” said Siphamandla Zondi, an analyst at the Institute for Global Dialogue.
SADC Secretary General Tomaz Salomao will lead deliberation on proposals developed to assist Madagascar to return to democracy, the rule of law and constitutionality.
Ravalomanana was forced out of office when the army turned against him after a bitter three-month struggle, and his supporters have taken to the streets in protest.
Zimbabwe’s hopes will be pinned on a package worth $2-billion which it requested to help aid its reconstruction after a year of political and economic crisis.
The embattled country was struck a blow this week when the International Monetary Fund said it would only provide aid to Zimbabwe once the unity government meets key conditions.
Independent political analyst Laurence Caromba said SADC countries will ”certainly” not insist on western-style preconditions before giving money to Zimbabwe.
However he questioned where countries would get the money from as their own economies struggle under the effects of a global economic crisis.
”Even if regional countries are willing to fund Zimbabwe, it’s not entirely clear where they will get the money,” said Caromba.
”The wealthier countries such as South Africa are currently running budget deficits as a result of the international financial crisis.”
Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai who joined the unity government with his rival President Robert Mugabe in February had originally sought up to $5-billion in aid and investments to rebuild his
country.
Zimbabwe’s economy has been in freefall for nearly a decade, with record hyperinflation, unemployment at 94% and a severe collapse
of services which resulted in a deadly cholera epidemic.
In December, South Africa donated R300-million worth of agricultural aid to boost the country’s struggling farmers.
Other Western donors have said that they will not lend money to Zimbabwe or lift sanctions against Mugabe until the 85-year-old leader demonstrates that he is willing to make a fragile unity government work.
”The region has invested a lot of its resources, image and integrity in the protracted peace-making process … so they will definitely decide to provide assistance less stringently than others are doing,” said Zondi.
”The region will probably provide targeted aid, prioritising specific sectors of the economy like agriculture and provision of basic social services,” said Zondi.
He added that the region had more vested interest in the route that the politics in Zimbabwe is taking than the West and funding institutions like the IMF.
SADC ministers of finance and foreign affairs started arriving on Saturday in the Swazi administrative capital Mbabane.
The foreign ministry said in a statement: ”All member states except for Madagascar have confirmed participation in this all important
meeting. Ministers would hold a meeting on Sunday morning at the Royal Villas just a day before the heads of state summit on Monday.” – AFP
