Lower Mexico flu death toll heartens nervous world

In a glint of good news for a world rattled by the threat of a flu pandemic, new laboratory data showed fewer people have died in Mexico than first thought from a deadly new influenza strain.

Mexico cut its suspected death toll from the new H1N1 swine flu to up to 101 from as many as 176 as dozens of test samples came back negative.

Few patients are checking into hospitals fearing infection with a flu that has spread as far as Asia.

The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention agreed the outbreak may not be as severe as it looked a few days ago, citing many mild cases that were not immediately noticed.

For Mexicans—who are spending a second weekend stuck indoors with stores and businesses shuttered across the country and the capital, Mexico City, devoid of its lively restaurants, bars, cinemas and museums—the data is cheering.

Health Minister José Ángel Córdova acknowledged the numbers were encouraging but cautioned it was too early to say Mexico has control of a flu that has infected people in 15 countries.

“For now it’s unpredictable, we don’t have that information,” Córdova said late on Friday, noting epidemics can peak again after an initial spurt in infections drops off.

“We need more days to see how it behaves and whether there is really a sustained decline so we can conclude that it’s going down,” he said.

The new virus is only the third infectious disease experts regard as having pandemic potential in the past 10 years.

It has world health experts racing to work on a vaccine and is wreaking havoc with a travel industry that flies hundreds of thousands of people to and from Mexico each week.

On Friday, China suspended flights to Mexico after Hong Kong authorities confirmed a Mexican man who traveled through the mainland is infected with the new flu strain.

Police in surgical masks locked guests inside a Hong Kong hotel where the 25-year-old Mexican had been staying. Three companions of his were placed in isolation wards.

Hong Kong, on China’s south-east coast, is experienced in handling sporadic outbreaks of H5N1 avian flu, as well as SARS in 2003, which killed 299 people.

Antiviral demand up, Panama catches runaway

Various European countries, and even South Korea, have confirmed cases of the flu virus.

The United States has been hit with 145 cases in 22 states, sending demand shooting up for antiviral medicine and prompting preventative measures such as a Boston University dropping handshakes for graduating students accepting diplomas.

In Panama, police detained an American who ran away from a hospital that was testing him for the swine flu.

Almost all infections outside Mexico have been mild, however, with only a handful needing hospital treatment. The only death in another country has been a Mexican toddler who was taken to the United States before he fell sick.

Mexico has released a confusing soup of flu data in recent days but public hospitals have noted a steady drop in patients turning up with fevers, suggesting the infection rate may be declining as the nation dons face masks and hand gel.

“There are very few deaths worldwide,” said Marcelo Musi, a salesman shopping for vegetables in Mexico City, where residents weary of masks, hand sanitiser and frightening headlines clutched at signs of an end to the crisis.

“If there are no more cases, they say things will get better,” said Musi.

President Felipe Calderon ordered non-essential businesses to close for five days from Friday, extending a three-day holiday weekend over Monday and Tuesday.

Analysts say the move will dent already negative economic growth this year as it pinches businesses, but inspectors will fine or forcibly close companies that defy the order.

Countless families were devastated at having their long weekend ruined.
Young couples, children and the elderly were mainly stuck indoors as restaurants, bars, playgrounds and parks that hold outdoor “cumbia” dances all stayed closed.

Cordova said that out of 159 files on suspected flu deaths, tests showed 58 died of other causes. He said 16 deaths are confirmed as caused by the H1N1 flu and 85 are being tested. - Reuters