/ 4 May 2009

China adds weight to hopes global economy turning

China’s manufacturing sector posted its best performance in nine months in April, a private survey showed on Monday, offering fresh evidence the global economy may be picking up from its sharpest slump in six decades.

The latest sign of ”green shoots” from the world’s third largest economy came as Asian stock markets cheered Friday’s US data that showed a rise in consumer confidence and suggested manufacturing conditions were gradually improving.

But markets also waited for the results of the US bank ”stress tests”, with the Financial Times reporting Bank of America was planning to raise more than $10-billion in fresh capital even as it and Citigroup attempt to convince the government they do not need to bolster their balance sheets.

Hong Kong-based brokerage CLSA said its China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50,1 in April from 44,8 in March. It was the first time since July 2008 the seasonally-adjusted index climbed above the 50-point watershed mark that separates expansion from contraction.

”China’s government has been extremely successful in stimulating investment and, combined with a sharp improvement in export orders, this has pushed the PMI back into positive territory in April,” said Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA.

Through to worst?
A series of global PMI surveys — which record changes in items such as output, orders, employment, inventories and prices — have suggested or are forecast to show signs the world economy may be through the worst of the downturn.

The euro zone manufacturing PMI index later on Monday is expected to rise, according to a Reuters poll, although it is forecast to remain well below 50, while a survey from India was also expected to show an improvement.

Russian data on Monday showed the manufacturing sector contracting at a slower pace in April, while reports from Japan and Britain last week told a similar story.

With Japan closed for a holiday, shares elsewhere in Asia-Pacific rose 3,7% on Monday, pushing the regional index to its highest level since mid-October and taking its two-month rally to 44% from early March lows.

”Bank earnings are coming out fine and investors increasingly believe the result of the US banking sector’s stress test will be tolerable,” said Kim Hak-kyun, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities in Seoul.

Stress tests
The global recession was triggered by a crisis in the financial sector and the US government has been conducting unprecedented ”stress tests” on 19 banks to determine if they have enough capital to withstand further shocks.

Citing people familiar with the situation, the Financial Times said Bank of America, Citigroup and at least two other lenders would on Monday attempt to convince the US Treasury and Federal Reserve that the findings were too pessimistic.

Bank of America, which has already received $45-billion in government bailout funds, was found to need well in excess of $10-billion, the FT said. A government official said the results of the stress tests would be made public on Thursday.

Warren Buffett, considered by many to be the world’s best investor, criticised the conduct of the tests on Sunday, telling a news conference they failed to properly assess the industry’s health because they ignored differences in business models.

Even regions largely unaffected by the banking meltdown have been suffering, with many export-focused emerging economies hit by a collapse in demand for their products in the West.

On Sunday, 13 East and South-east Asian countries agreed to set up a $120-billion emergency fund in the first independent move by Asia to shield itself from the crisis.

Australia, which has fared better than most industrialised countries, posted some unexpectedly weak data on Monday, showing house prices falling at the fastest pace in at least six years in the last quarter and a record drop in job advertisements pointing to higher unemployment.

”The weakness in house prices was a shock and bodes ill for household wealth and confidence, while the jobs figures were just terrible,” said Stephen Roberts, an economist at Nomura. – Reuters