Second quarter Bank Confidence Index results indicated a slight improvement in sector confidence, Ernst & Young said on Thursday.
However, a breakdown by category illustrated that retail bank’s prospects remained weak, while investment banks had seen an upsurge in confidence.
According to the index, retail banking confidence fell from 32 points in the first quarter of 2009 to a slightly weaker 28 points in the second quarter.
However, investment banking confidence rose quite sharply from 32 to 50, the index showed.
This was the 30th quarterly survey conducted to measure confidence in the banking industry.
The research for the survey was carried out by the Bureau for Economic Research in Stellenbosch.
”We have been hearing a lot about the appearance of early signs of a recovery [green shoots] in the last four to six weeks,” said Emilio Pera, financial services director at Ernst & Young.
”In the case of investment banks, this appears to be more pronounced,” he added.
The business fundamentals were not that different between retail and investment banks, he noted.
Both segments of banking were experiencing continued and protracted profit contractions, caused by flat or reduced income growth and continued high growth in non-performing loans.
Nevertheless, investment banks were benefiting from a client base that was more resilient to interest rate increases over the past two years, although corporate entities were starting to feel the impact towards the end of the interest rate tightening cycle, Pera said
”A more fundamental reason for the return of confidence in investment banking is a turnaround in resource companies,” he said.
All the major resource producers had gained from rebounding commodity prices, which in turn had led to a resumption in corporate merger and acquisition activity and re-looking at projects that in the latter half of 2008 were mothballed, he said.
”These developments tend to be beneficial for investment banks.”
As a result, interest income growth continued to be sturdier for investment banks, although declining fee income did negatively impact them.
”It may well be that the current weak credit growth trends will be turned around by growing corporate demand,” Pera noted.
The household demand for credit remained weak, and this in turn was hurting retail banking’s bottom-line resulting in lower confidence levels.
While demand for credit remained weak, banks themselves were maintaining stringent credit standards, particularly in the retail market, Pera noted.
Investment banks, on the other hand, saw a noticeable relaxation of credit standards in the second quarter.
”Retail banks remain wary of granting credit in an environment where the ability of over-extended households to repay secured and unsecured debts continues to be a concern,” Pera said.
Credit cards, mortgages and instalment finance were all either reflecting negative or flat growth in the year to April, he added.
”It is understandable why banks are more cautious in their credit granting processes at this point in time.
”Banks have a fiduciary duty to provide credit responsibly and not in a reckless fashion.”
Pera said the National Credit Act provided a framework within which the banking sector had to work.
”There is also a duty to shareholders and to clients, both depositors and borrowers,” he added.
”In this tough environment, it has been difficult for the banking sector to improve efficiencies, particularly retail banks.
”Although banks have had success in reducing cost growth, efficiency ratios have worsened due to sharply declining or flat revenue growth.”
Pera said investment banks had been far more flexible in shedding costs as their revenues declined, while retail banks had more extensive infrastructure which was not as easily discarded.
”However, both segments of the banking sector have seen a contraction in headcount, as they size down to a more suitable size to fit the current economic environment.”
Pera said that typically, it took at least six to 12 months for interest rate reductions to feed through the economy, and result in increased consumer expenditure.
”Thus far, the lower interest rate environment has not filtered through to the retail banking sector, and in addition, there is concern that the current recession is far from over.”
Growing unemployment might offset any of the benefits of lower interest rates for retail banks. However, on the investment banking side, there appeared to be better prospects for growth, even if profits are contracting at present, he said.
”The corporate sector of the economy may well lead the economic recovery, in which case the investment banking market is likely to continue benefiting in the immediate quarters ahead,” Pera added. — Sapa