House prices fell in July, according to the Standard Bank’s residential property gauge released on Monday.
House prices declined by 4,9% last month from the same period a year ago, the bank said.
The rate of contraction was the same as in the month of June, the bank added.
”The overall growth in the economy, the level of household income and debt, as well as the medium-term economic and financial outlook, are such that a clear and immediate improvement in the housing market is unlikely,” economist Johan Botha said.
”The best that we can hope for is for price declines to stabilise towards the end of the year as the recent interest rate cuts work their way through the economy and overall sentiment improves,” he added.
Standard Bank had previously pointed out that house price contraction had been aggravated by industry wide loan-to-value restrictions.
”We have to highlight that any easing in credit granting criteria will be mild, as risks continue to lie on the upside in so far as job security and income growth is concerned,” Botha said.
He noted that statistics still reflected a rising number of insolvencies and liquidations and banks had reported significant increases in bad debt.
Botha said households currently owed banks an astounding R1,2-trillion, of which the greater part (70%) represented mortgage advances.
”Furthermore, about a third of South Africans with impaired credit records are more than three months in arrears,” he said.
He added that on the monetary policy front it appeared that the downward phase of the interest rate cycle had come to an end.
”The cumulative 450 basis points cuts that commenced in December 2008, however, will still have to filter through the economy.
”The full impact of interest rate cuts on economic growth could take as long as 12 to 18 months,” Botha said. — Sapa