There is something of a tectonic shift taking place in the intelligence community under President Jacob Zuma’s administration.
The unceremonious departure of Manala Manzini as director general of the National Intelligence Agency (NIA) — his contract was not renewed — and the speculation about his replacement by Moe Shaik are merely the most visible manifestations of deeper structural moves afoot.
Some of this change was telegraphed by State Security Minister Siyabonga Cwele during his budget vote speech in Parliament in July.
Cwele noted: ”Our mission to ensure we provide value for money, however, may prove impossible with the current way we are structured, where there is a proliferation of structures which not only makes coordination a constant challenge but also contributes to a lack of sufficient focus. We will therefore embark on a review process with the aim of developing an effective and efficient intelligence architecture —”
Several sources have indicated to the Mail & Guardian that government will table legislation to amalgamate the NIA — which conducts domestic intelligence-gathering — with the South African Secret Service — which is responsible for external operations.
Such a change would probably make practical sense, but it would be controversial given the traditional international separation of domestic spying, which is generally subject to more stringent oversight and control, and foreign operations, which usually enjoy greater latitude.
An alternative or additional change would be to strengthen the powers and functions of the coordinator of the National Intelligence Coordinating Committee (Nicoc) to become a kind of ”intelligence czar” with responsibility for all intelligence collection, including by military and crime intelligence agencies.
Shaik is known to favour this approach and is thought to covet this kind of restructured position. He has publicly deflected speculation around any future role in intelligence, despite strong speculation in a well-informed City Press article suggesting he was a shoo-in for the job.
Although the weekend report might be kite-flying by his supporters — the Shaik machine is adept at such media spin — the appointment of a temporary stand-in to replace Manzini suggests the appointment of new intelligence leadership is likely be coordinated with the restructuring foreshadowed by Cwele.
It is understood that the current Nicoc coordinator, Silumko Sokupa, has been appointed to take over Manzini’s job for the time being.
One close observer of the intelligence community, who spoke off the record, concurred that Zuma may well choose Shaik, despite some serious lobbying against him.
He said that when considered against the professional cynicism and strategic nous necessary for the job, there were not many candidates who could match Shaik.
Shaik’s history of loyalty to Zuma and his willingness to use intelligence to fight political battles — key ingredients of opposition to his appointment — might not be regarded by the president as negative qualities, given that it appears that he has looked especially for loyalty in his security sector appointments.
But some of Shaik’s more controversial associations, such as with Cape hardman Cyril Beeka, may give Zuma pause.
A recent post that points the way has been the selection of Mthobeli Zokwe as chief executive of the strategic National Communications Centre, which controls all interception of electronic communication.
Zokwe, formerly a low-profile councillor with the Independent Communications Authority, was an underground activist and has a defence and technology background.
But more important perhaps was his status as an outsider, even an opponent, during the Mbeki era.
Other voices say that Moe (and, more generally, the Shaik family) has been too controversial, too embarrassing for Zuma to contemplate his candidacy.
They also note that there is an Africanist lobby — linked to the battle over Zuma’s successor — which has taken a strong position against appointing Shaik.
But observers are united in the view that this is one appointment Zuma will make largely by himself, according to his own instincts.
Meanwhile, get set for a more interventionist approach by the intelligence services — in keeping with the message from other members of the security cluster.
In his July speech Cwele promised: ”Our intelligence services must be at the very centre of identifying threats to our constitutional order and ensuring the successful implementation of government’s programme.”
To do that, he said, would require approaches to national security different from those adopted since 1994, which were preoccupied with the democratic transition: ”We will prioritise the finalisation of the National Security Strategy to guide our common approach in upholding national security.
”This will also spell out a management system that will ensure that all the capabilities of our government and nation are effectively harnessed and coordinated to better deal with threats confronting us.”