Top diplomats from the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany will meet Iran’s nuclear negotiator on Thursday in Geneva, the first talks on Tehran’s disputed atomic programme in over a year.
European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana will join United States, British, French, Russian, Chinese and German foreign ministry political directors facing Iran’s Saeed Jalili.
Following are the key issues and what’s likely to happen.
No resolution
Western diplomats from the six do not expect the meeting to resolve their long-running nuclear stand-off with Iran. The most likely outcome, they say, is that all sides will confirm their positions and the overall dispute will remain unresolved.
However, they said Iran’s willingness to talk and the US presence, headed by undersecretary of state for political affairs William Burns, for direct dialogue with Iran were positive developments in themselves.
Burns first joined the other five powers and Iran for a meeting in Geneva on the nuclear issue in July 2008 during the administration of president George Bush. That was widely hailed as a major US shift in policy towards arch-enemy Iran.
Diplomats present then said Burns worked hard to avoid shaking hands with the Iranian delegate. Washington cut off diplomatic ties with Iran in 1980 after its Islamic Revolution. But President Barack Obama has said he is looking for ways to end the state of frozen hostility.
Topics
The six powers have said they want Iran to respond substantively to their offer of trade and political incentives in exchange for a suspension of sensitive nuclear activities by Tehran and improved cooperation with UN inspectors. But Western diplomats said Jalili was unlikely to have a response.
Western powers suspect Iran is developing the capability to produce nuclear weapons under cover of a civilian atomic energy programme. Tehran denies this but refuses to suspend its uranium enrichment campaign as demanded by the Security Council.
Iran has ruled out addressing the details of its nuclear programme, saying it will only talk about its latest counter-offer. Western diplomats say that proposal is vague and contains nothing that could resolve the nuclear stalemate.
Russia, however, has said there are positive elements in Iran’s package.
The United States, Britain, France and Germany also plan to seek explanations from Iran about a second enrichment plant they say Tehran was hiding from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, until last week.
The Western powers will further urge Iran to accept swift and unconditional inspections of the newly revealed plant. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the IAEA would be welcome to inspect the facility.
Russian-Chinese stance key to outcome
The most important outcome of the meeting will be its impact on Russia and China. Western diplomats say both may leave Geneva determined to wait for an IAEA inspection of the new enrichment site and an IAEA report on it before taking further action.
The next report on Iran is expected in November. It is not clear when UN inspectors will be able to examine the new site and there is no guarantee the IAEA will be able to reach any conclusions in time for the next report.
That means an IAEA verdict is probably months away.
The Russians and Chinese could emerge from the talks with more sympathy for the West’s view that Iran is playing for time and not interested in settling the nuclear dispute. If that happens, the Western powers will be pleased.
There may be follow-up talks between Solana and Jalili.
It is also possible Moscow and Beijing will come away more sympathetic to Iran’s position — namely, that it is cooperating with the IAEA and its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful. But comments from Moscow since the second enrichment site came to light suggest a hardening of Russia’s stance on Iran.
China’s position is less clear. It has said it is worried about the enrichment plant disclosure but stuck to its call for negotiations instead of more sanctions mooted by the West.
Both Russia and China could veto any Security Council resolutions to extend punitive sanctions against Iran. – Reuters