The global recession revealed its first hint of a silver lining on Tuesday when the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed that carbon emissions could fall in 2009 by as much as 3%.
This is the biggest decline in the last 40 years, and presented a much welcomed boon to reducing climate change.
”This would lead to emissions in 2020 being 5% lower then the agency estimated just 12 months ago — even in the absence of additional policies,” said the IEA’s executive director Nobuo Tanaka.
Tanaka released the good news at the unveiling of a section of his agency’s annual World Energy Outlook report at the ongoing United Nations Climate Change Talks in Bangkok. The talks are part of the negotiations leading to the big climate change indaba in Copenhagen, Denmark, where a climate deal that forces countries to reduce their carbon emissions is likely to be signed. The full report will be officially released on November 10 in London.
It warned, however, that before popping the champagne, the world should grab the opportunity that had unexpectedly presented itself.
”The economic downturn had created the chance to put the global energy system on a trajectory to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions,” Tanaka said. ”This gives us a chance to make real progress towards a clean-energy future, but only if the right policies are put in place promptly.”
The report delivered a simple, stark message according to Tanaka: ”If the world continues on the basis of today’s energy policies, the climate change impacts will be severe.”
He said the work of the United Nations on climate change and the negotiations at Copenhagen would be critical to take advantage of the credit crunch’s windfall. He also urged world leaders to invest in a new low carbon economy.
Tanaka called on countries to commit to a 43% emission cut by 2020, compared to 1990 levels, in Copenhagen.
”Energy is at the heart of the problem, and so must form the core of the solution,” he said. ”The share of renewables and nuclear in the global energy mix at the moment is 18%. By 2030 it must grow to 33%.”
Chief IEA economist Fatih Birol said the trend up to now was that annually carbon emmissions grew with about 3%.
The IEA’s members are mostly developed countries, which have, up to now, been the biggest emitters of carbon. The influential agency was established within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1974 to implement an international energy framework. South Africa, China and India are not members.
The agency believed that rich-country emissions must fall steadily from 2007 levels.
Developing economies such as South Africa, Brazil, and China would have to stop emissions growth by 2020. At the moment South Africa’s mitigation plan was for its emissions to peak between 2020 and 2025, then stabilise by 2030, before decreasing emissions in absolute terms by 2050.
India must reduce its energy use by 16% from a business-as-usual scenario by 2020 and China would have to play a leading role in the global combat against climate change, the agency said. According to its calculations emissions in 2020 would need to be reduced by 3,8 gigatonnes to keep the temperature from rising more than two degrees. And China would need to reduce its carbon footprint by at least one gigatonne — more than anywhere else in the world.
The agency said the Chinese government was mooting proposal that would enable it to make this cut.
The IEA also cautioned that $10-trillion would be needed from 2010 to 2030 to control carbon emissions. This is equal to just about 1% of global economic output between 2020 and 2030, but fuel saving across industry, transport and buildings would make this investment a much easier amount to stomach.
Reacting to the report the World Wildlife Fund’s technology and climate change expert in Bangkok, John Nordbo, said it would be completely ”stupid” not to invest in low carbon economy.
”The investments the world has to make to shift to low carbon economy will pay off and result in lower energy bills, less air pollution and help keep climate change under control,” he said.
He urged policymakers to study the report carefully as he believed it showed that countries could be far more ambitious in their emission reduction targets.
”It is realistic for global energy sector emissions to peak between 2015 and 2020,” he said.