Contrary to popular belief, and certainly their own belief, international cricketers aren’t always in the best position to assess who is in form and who isn’t.
They are in a much better position to judge than the average beer-drinking bar-stooler whose exercise routine amounts to 375ml arm curls and the occasional lurch to the gents, but sometimes they are too close to the action to be objective.
Players also take far longer to let go of reputations than selectors, administrators and the most ruthless mob of all (no, not journalists), the bar-stoolers. So what’s the truth behind the sudden and loudly voiced perception that South Africa’s bowling attack will struggle to take 20 English wickets in the Test series?
Partly, the perception is based on the evidence of the past six months in which the Proteas have not played a single Test match and the bowlers, en masse, like many others around the world, became fixated with defence to such a point that they forget all about attack.
Another reason is that sports fans around the world sometimes share the memory span of goldfish (once around the bowl and everything looks different again, and invariably worse than it was).
There are certain facts about the composition of the two teams’ attacks and most of them would strongly suggest that it is the home side that has more fire power and experience at its disposal and therefore the greater chance of taking 20 wickets. And that’s before you even consider the relative merits of the batting line-ups.
Dale Steyn has the fourth-highest strike rate of any bowler who has played at the highest level. His 170 victims have been culled at an average of one every 39,2 balls bowled, or almost exactly six-and-a-half overs. The great Allan Donald’s 330 wickets were gathered with every 47th ball bowled, while Shaun Pollock’s 421 scalps came at 57,8 balls per wicket.
James Anderson, by comparison, will lead the tourists’ attack with 140 wickets at a strike rate of 60,3 and an average of 35 runs per wicket. His likely new ball partner, 23-year-old Stuart Broad, has just 64 wickets and a strike rate of 65,4. Compare that with Morne Morkel’s 55 Test wickets every 56,3 deliveries and it’s fair to say where the neutral vote would go, especially when Morkel’s ability to hit 150km/h is added into the equation.
But here’s where the anecdotal evidence from the players becomes even more interesting than statistics. Graeme Smith and his men are convinced that England’s best bowler remains a potent world force and still has the priceless ability to break partnerships at the most opportune moments and on the flattest pitches. His name is Steve Harmison and he is still in England, uninvited to tour.
England will also welcome the news of Steyn’s absence through injury. Perhaps Smith and his men really are out of touch and the England selectors were right to leave Harmison at home, but they also inadvertently gave the home side a significant fillip. On the contrary, the excited whispers from the England camp concerning Morkel’s initial exclusion from the ODI squad was a dead giveaway about how highly regarded he is. No less than three England players privately asked locals about his absence at the beginning of the tour, two of whom suggested that he must either be injured or ”politically substituted”, which suggests they rate him highly enough to be a certain starter.
And then there is the grand ”old” man himself, the great Makhaya Ntini, veteran of 100 Tests and proud owner of 388 wickets. ”With a record like that, at least nobody can say I’m in the team because of the colour of my skin,” he said with a chuckle earlier this week, always with the spark of seriousness in his eye, which his humour fails to completely mask.
It has been a tough journey for the Mdingi Express in the past decade and the mark of his achievement, against most odds, is that the public will afford him the rarest — and least appreciated — of honours at Centurion. An easy ride.
His legacy will truly be appreciated only in decades to come, but much as he and the rest of the team will hate to hear this, the first Test really should be about celebrating his contribution to the future of the game. The best thing everyone can do is to expect nothing from the great man. Perhaps a dozen maiden overs, but nothing more. Even better would be to let him know that nothing was expected of him, now that his pace has dropped and he lacks menace.
When Ntini is given the impression that he is on a free ticket, or that he is being written off, he invariably responds with a devastating riposte. So, if he still has it in him, then let’s just say: ”Makkie, enjoy the celebration. You deserve it.”