Gordhan’s just tinkering
Every budget since 1994 has been met with orgasmic squeals from the press organs of the ruling class, as though someone puts Spanish fly in the booze at the budget speech after-parties. But the most recent squealing has been unusually loud and unanimous. What’s going on?
Pravin Gordhan was a competent bean-counter at the South African Revenue Service (Sars), but is out of his depth as minister of finance. He first drew ruling-class applause when his first mini-budget reduced what remains of exchange controls. (Reducing exchange controls is the stupidest single thing you can do in a recession, because it helps the ruling class get its money out of the country.) His unconvincing verbiage is typical of Zuma’s Cabinet.
This is a business-as-usual Trevor Manuel budget with some numbers slightly tweaked. Manuel’s budgets weren’t bad, but we are now in a much more serious economic crisis than Manuel ever faced. Were Manuel in charge, and had Manuel the support of the president, there might be some radical restructuring. Gordhan, however, is too unimaginative and politically weak to do more than tinker.
The tinkering is mostly in the form of cuts. This is concealed, partly by actively concealing the real figures, partly because when figures are given and compared with those last year, no allowance is made for inflation. (Most social grants have been frozen, and child support has been cut, when you make this allowance.) Almost the only increase was given to the police, whose capacity to shoot toddlers and shackle and hood obnoxious joggers has certainly improved under Zuma.
This is a stealth Gear. Spending is restrained in the hope that the gigantic deficit that Gordhan permitted last year (without the support of the president he could not control the fiscus) will somehow be reduced by a third over the next three years. That’s less than Gear accomplished, but at least Gordhan seems to understand that the deficit is dangerous. As a result, in the medium term, even if the global economy grows substantially and Gordhan’s numbers come out right, the outlook is austere.
Unfortunately, spending is going to be more (and less wisely invested) than Gordhan pretends. Austerity usually means slowed economic growth, so revenue will be less than Gordhan pretends. The global economy is unlikely to escape recession, which will reduce revenue. Hence, despite Gordhan’s efforts, the deficit is not going to contract. It will probably grow, in which case servicing the national debt will gobble up all the money that would otherwise have gone on social services. This process could generate an Argentina-style social uprising and governmental collapse towards the end of Zuma’s first term.
So why is the ruling class so keen on Gordhan? Maybe they fancy a collapse. Nic Dawes provides another answer: Gordhan has mildly criticised those South African laws that protect workers and hence his appointment is a step towards cutting worker wages and increasing unemployment. Gordhan does not have the power to make such decisions and such decisions would not really help the ruling class. But, if Dawes is right, Gordhan is at least an enemy of the poor and unionised workers, so the ruling class has gotta luv him. — Mathew Blatchford, University of Fort Hare
Mazibuko Jara once asked of the South African Communist Party (SACP): ‘What is our colour, red or JZ?” It was then taboo to question the loyalty of Jacob Zuma to the left. Now the left is questioning Zuma’s commitment to the ‘national democratic revolution” and to a pro-poor budget.
Before 2005 Zuma religiously defended Gear. Like Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki, he is a broad nationalist. Yet when he became president, he appointed a former SACP underground operative and a UDF cabal leader, Pravin Gordhan, to replace Trevor Manuel as finance minister. The SACP and Cosatu hailed this appointment as a shift to the left.
Simultaneously with the worst State of the Nation address, Cosatu called for a ‘lifestyle audit” of ANC politicians. Julius Malema’s lifestyle is now under scrutiny in the media. I bet you Sars will be used to expose those who differ with the Gordhan faction. The left is also concerned about Zuma’s retreat into Zulu chauvinism and there is displeasure at his R65-million house amid a sea of poverty at Nkandla.
The left is now realising Zuma is a liability. The reintroduction of the idea of a two-tier labour regime has angered Cosatu. This idea was introduced by Jabu Moleketi at the University of Pretoria policy conference and the left mobilised for its rejection. Soon after Polo-kwane, Zuma reintroduced it and Zwelinzima Vavi summoned him to the central committee to explain himself. Cowardly Zuma retreated. Gordhan used his budget speech to reintroduce it.
If Zuma cannot unite the Zumaists, how can he unite the ANC and society at large? — Nandipha Nkosenye, Harrismith
State’s middle finger
Is South Africa becoming a police state? The chilling arrest of Chumani Maxwele, and the treatment meted out to him after he gestured at the presidential motorcade, suggests it might well be (‘No middle finger to prez”, February 19). The banana-republic behaviour of the VIP Protection Unit in its fast-moving, blue-light convoys pushing other motorists off the road and waving guns around has become a disgraceful part of national culture.
And this attitude is filtering downwards. Scarcely a week passes in the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands when an innocent motorist is not kidnapped, assaulted or harassed by traffic police or transport officials who often refuse to identify themselves. Even seeking refuge in a police station doesn’t work. At Camperdown recently the police stood watching while a woman was assaulted in the charge office.
Whether the culprits are drunk on power or something else is beside the point. This gross infringement of the rights of the free citizens of South Africa has to be stopped or we go down the Zimbabwe road. — Christopher Merrett, Pietermaritzburg
I am thoroughly sick of the brutishness shown to the ordinary person in the street (such as Chumani Maxwele). Did he give the prez the middle finger or not? Who cares?
Disrespect? Who has Chumani to respect? A president who certainly shows no respect? Not for the high crime rate, not for people’s privacy or their right to life. Where is the respect in allowing your own government officials to steal and get away with it?
Who looks up to a man who does not respect the sanctity of marriage (even polygamous marriage)? A man who disregards the threat of HIV/Aids in a country where it has reached pandemic proportions?
Pointing the middle finger seems mild if you consider the above. Respect? Our president does not deserve it. — Lee Butler
Jobs? What jobs?
Many were baffled by President Jacob Zuma’s sketchy State of the Nation address, which asserted that the government had been able to create 480 000 jobs out of the 500 000 that he promised to deliver within six months last year. It is understandable if people react hysterically, because it is common knowledge that almost one million people across the country lost their jobs because of the recession in the same year that he said 480 000 jobs were created.
Only this year did he explain that he was referring to those jobs that were created through the Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP), which were mainly temporary and unsustainable and did very little to move any significant number of people out of poverty and the unemployment trap. As a result, many who found themselves jobless and hungry took the initiative and joined the already swollen informal trading sector.
The latest report of Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey, released last year, reflected an increase in retrenchment compared with previous seasons. The report also showed an increase in the discouraged unemployed — those who have given up hope of finding work. A few weeks after the release of this report, the president made an appeal for government to be afforded sufficient time to deliver, while at the same time admitting that it may not be feasible to create 500 000 jobs as promised. Therefore, the affirmation that 97% of job creation was achieved in the EPWP needs to be backed by substantial evidence as a way of demonstrating sound governance and accountability to citizens.
The president also seemed to have used ‘quiet diplomacy” regarding the acts of Cabinet ministers and departments who spent taxpayers’ money on luxury vehicles. Instilling a sense of conscientiousness in government cannot be equated with splashing out R42.6-million on luxury vehicles alone — in a recession, nogal! — Thabo Koole, media and communication coordinator, Ecumenical Service for Socio-Economic Transformation
Home of the world
Without wanting to detract from David Smith’s excellent article (‘Into Mrs Ples’s parlour”, February 12), or from Sterkfontein’s fantastic archaeological finds, if Smith wants to locate the latest known roots of modern human behaviour he has to head south to the Cape floral kingdom.
The garden of eden was, and probably is, in Eden along the Garden Route, and its centre has been identified in the last decade as being located in caves near Mossel Bay. There, up to 200 000 years ago, the locals found the secret to faster brain and placenta growth — omega 3 fatty acids sourced from shellfish and the roots of fynbos.
These advances in brain size gave rise to developments that produced the oldest (yet found) use of ochre and the original use of fire in production 70 000 years ago, by the firing of silcrete to make it easier to flake and turn into stone tools. The Germans may have perfected production technology subsequently, but Africans developed it initially!
Through DNA assessment, it is likely that all modern humans are descended from approximately 600 people who probably lived in this area. We as proud South Africans can truly say: ‘The World Cup comes home to the home of the world.” — Guy Harris, chairperson of the working group, Mossel Bay Caves Edutainment
Hail Sobukwe
February 27 marks the 32nd anniversary of the death of Pan Africanist Congress founding president Mangaliso Robert Sobukwe. ANC Youth League leader and co-founder AP Mda said Sobukwe developed his and Anton Lembede’s African nationalism ‘to a higher level”; Sobukwe was also a forefather of black consciousness. He had a profound love for the oppressed African people and was a committed and uncompromising leader. A special law was enacted by the apartheid government specifically for him, to keep him in jail (he was released in 1969, a dying man). As former US ambassador to the UN Andrew Young said in 1978, Sobukwe will continue to inspire South Africa and all the world. — Sam Ditshego
In brief
Deputy Police Minister Fikile Mbalula’s statement that opposition parties are jealous of the ANC for having someone of the calibre of Julius Malema on their side is laughable. That’s like being jealous of someone for having a large pimple on their bottom. — Kate Lorimer, MPL, DA spokesperson on safety and security, Gauteng
It cannot be the position of the ANC to sanction comprador-bourgeois tendencies in its ranks as demonstrated by the parasitic nature of its cadres in relation to the state. It must wage a strong offensive against those in its ranks who display conspicuous, unashamed consumption and materialism. It must guard its soul jealously, or we will traverse the dangerous path of most revolutionary movements and suffer the same fate as Ivory Coast, Zambia, Zaire, Zimbabwe and Ghana. — Zukiswa Mqolomba
We need swift action to disband the ludicrous club that is the ANC Youth League. It beggars belief that a vibrant country has allowed itself to be bullied by a club of boys whose leaders are illiterates. The Youth League says there is a conspiracy to weaken them by a faction of ANC bigwigs who feel that they will be marginalised in the next round of divvying up our stolen taxes! — Tebza Ngwana