Uncertainty has become the new certainty as volcanic ash kept planes grounded across Europe for a week and Greece became the first developed economy to need a bailout, threatening a financial wipeout across the eurozone.
The volcanic ash, at least, is not of human making, but it is worth pausing to reflect on the financial fallout in Greece and possible repercussions in the other PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain), all of which have challenging public finances.
The European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout of Greece comes in at $140billion (R1trillion). Greece’s economy is not too dissimilar in size with South Africa’s R2,4trillion and R2trillion respectively. Greece’s budget deficit spiked to more than 13% compared with 8% back home.
The bailout has been linked to an austerity programme with salary cuts and freezes until 2014 for civil servants, VAT raised to 23% from 19% and onceoff taxes on the most profitable companies.
Suddenly there is new attention on budget deficits. Yesterday’s fiscal stimulus to get the economy going again is today’s nightmare. Although our debt levels are prudent compared with Greece’s, there is worry among senior policymakers that possible wider euro fallout may have serious consequences domestically in terms of our ability and cost of borrowing offshore and for a demand for our exports.
Greece’s attempts to reign in public spending have come at the cost of major social unrest, including a planned general strike. Fears of contagion have shuddered around the globe. Just imagine President Jacob Zuma’s administration having to implement wage cuts and freezes on the public sector, plus tax hikes, as in Greece.
But the news is not all bad. Commodities continue to do very well. Glencore, a secretive Swissbased company founded by onetime fugitive Marc Rich, has mooted a merger with Xstrata, in which it already has a 34% share, to form a new commodity giant with a combined value of $84billion.
But the profits of commodity producers are now also in the sights of the authorities. The Australian government is proposing a new super tax of 40% on the profits of resource companies. It aims to raise Aus$9billion from this source, Aus$7billion of which will come from behemoth BHP Billiton. This is a chunk of change – about R60billion.
BHP Billiton’s Marius Kloppers responded to the plan, which will be phased in after two years, by saying that it would raise the effective tax rate for the company in Australia from 43% to 57%. He said the move would be bad for investment certainty and for jobs.
The bourses reacted badly, knocking BHP Billiton’s share price, as well as the resource sector and markets in general.
The Australian government is proud of its new tax, which it calls a resource super profits tax (RSPT). It describes it as “world class, a new benchmark for resource taxation”.
The increased tax take from the RSPT will go in part to fund lower taxes for other business, starting with small business.
Analysts at Bernstein Research said the possible introduction of a new resources rent tax could hit aftertax earnings at miners Rio Tinto and BHP BIlliton by between 5% and 27%.
The Guardian reported that, if the Australian government did go ahead with such a move, other more cashstrapped countries might follow suit.
Bernstein said: “The Australian government is conducting a tax review that has the potential to significantly increase the tax rate that the miners pay. These proposals could, of course, come to nothing, the recommendations never implemented or [they will] get watered down or delayed, reducing the impact.
“But this tax grab is a trend and a global trend at that. Mining is arguably enjoying a period of ‘super profits’, government budget deficits are large and mining is a soft target, therefore there can only be downside risks for the industry.”
Taxes, especially new taxes and super taxes, are unpopular in business and there are many arguments against them as they create uncertainty, governments are seen as not using resources as wisely as the private sector and because super taxes are seen as profits on success.
But the Australian tax on resources would get numerous green credits, the idea being that over time taxes should shift to taxing the use of the environment so that we make wiser and of scarce and depleting resources.
BHP Billiton is a wellmanaged and run company, but its profit levels at 46c in every dollar of sales are seen by the Australian government to be unfair, that is, not politically sustainable.
What will happen to prices if the Australian government gets its way? Will they just be passed on? ArcelorMittal’s Lakshmi Mittal has warned that steel prices will rise by about onethird as a result of new pricing systems agreed by the major suppliers of iron ore, including BHP Billiton.
Mittal told the Financial Times that ArcelorMittal would do all it could to pass on these increases by a corresponding amount.
Where the Australian government’s demand is for fairness, much of current policy locally seems stuck in the past, dealing with Alec Erwinera legacies where, for instance, ArcelorMittal was able to source iron ore at gift prices to turn into steel that it sold to us at monopoly prices.
BHP Billiton is a big story in South Africa, comprising the former assets of mining giant Gencor. But its financials may as well be a closed book as far as South Africa is concerned, as it does not report on a location basis.
It is a major supplier of coal to Eskom, as well as being a beneficiary of giveaway electricity prices. It would be useful to know exactly how this relationship stacks up: Does BHP Billiton sell us pricey coal that we then use to sell it cheap electricity?
Volcanoes or not, the world now looks like an explosive place. Australia has started a conversation that we should be having here too to ensure that equity is a guiding principle in the age of uncertainty.