The African National Congress (ANC) remains the party of choice for voters, but a closer relationship between the Independent Democrats (ID), Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Congress of the People (Cope) would be good for the country’s political health, according to the results of an Ipsos Markinor survey released on Wednesday.
The poll, conducted among 3 386 people in May, showed that if an election was held tomorrow, the ANC would get 66% of the vote, but Cope and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) would not do as well as the April 2009 elections.
“The poll shows the continued one-party dominance by the ANC as it attracts about a two-thirds majority, this despite a 5% drop-off of support from December 2009,” the statement read.
The survey interpreted the results to also confirm the need for opposition cooperation ahead of the 2011 local elections, as smaller opposition parties like Cope and the IFP continue to lose support.
The ID and the United Democratic Movement (UDM) were still attracting less than 1% of the vote, according to the survey.
The question posed was which party the person surveyed would vote for if national elections were held “tomorrow”.
Although the ANC still came out tops, with thumbs-up from 66% of those surveyed, this was a drop from the 71% of the vote it would have received if an election had been held at the end of 2009.
The ANC received just short of 66% in last year’s election.
Support for the official opposition, the DA, remained around the 12% to 13% mark, after winning 16,6% in the 2009 election.
Its core support between elections seems to hover at about 13%, and appeared stable.
Leadership disagreements
The troubled Cope, formed by a group of disgruntled ANC veterans who broke away in a “divorce”, won 7,42% of the April 2009 vote, but since then support among those surveyed has dropped to 3,6% as the party slugs it out in court over leadership disagreements.
The IFP attracted about 1,8% of the vote in the May survey, after winning 4,5% of the vote in the April 2009 election.
The company noted that the results of by-elections posted on the Independent Electoral Commission’s website on July 22 confirm the ANC’s electoral dominance as the party won 19 of 26 wards contested across the country.
The DA won four wards and consolidated its strong position in the Western Cape, and the IFP won three wards.
The analysts said that of the parties that currently attract more than 3% of eligible voters, the DA seemed to attract a more racially diverse support group. However, the party needed to bolster its youth support ahead of next year’s local elections, as it tended to appeal to older voters and youths were known not to pay much attention to local elections.
This was unlike the ANC, which had support across the age groups.
DA supporters were still 51,4% white, with coloured South Africans making up almost one-third (31,5%) and black South Africans a tenth (9,9%), according to the survey.
Supporters of the ANC and Cope are overwhelmingly black.
Cope has a small percentage of white and coloured support — about 10% each.
“The ANC continues to monopolise voter sentiment while the DA consolidates its position as the most effective opposition party in the current political scenario,” Ipsos Markinor commented, saying the proposed cooperation between the DA and ID, and possibly other opposition parties, was good news for the health of opposition politics in South Africa. — Sapa