South African President Jacob Zuma faces a fight for his political future next week at a major ANC policy-setting session, where he risks emerging far weaker and perhaps without a mandate for a second term.
The African National Congress holds a week-long strategy conference from Monday and the same left-leaning forces that backed his rise three years ago at a similar ANC event appear ready to withdraw support, angry that he has not reversed pro-business policies.
Zuma’s term ends in 2014 and his government, widely seen by analysts as ineffective, may muddle through the remainder of its time in office without addressing faltering growth, stubborn unemployment and the appearance of growing cronyism.
“I think it is too soon to write his obituary but he may well be a one-term president. To even consider that he is not going to get a second term does indicate that he is a weak president,” said Daniel Silke, an independent political analyst. The country’s largest labour federation, the Congress of South African Trade Unions, which is in a governing alliance with the ANC, has expressed anger at how some officials exploit their political connections to get rich while conditions for workers largely remain unchanged.
Questionable multibillion-rand mining deals involving Zuma’s son have added to the tension. Cosatu and business, which are seldom on the same side, have raised concerns about what appear to be increasing levels of graft.
“In recent years, corruption was not viewed as an inevitable hurdle to doing business in South Africa. People are now asking whether it’s time to revise this opinion,” said Anne Fruhauf, a political analyst at the Eurasia Group.
Back to reality
A rise in support for Zuma and euphoria after the Soccer World Cup were deflated by a strike by about 1,3-million public-sector workers during much of August that hit hard the legions of the poor who depend on state services.
The strike, led by Cosatu-affiliated unions, caused tensions with Zuma and led it to say the alliance was “dysfunctional”.
Cosatu, which has mobilised its two million members and been a steady vote gatherer for the ANC, has threatened to withdraw support for party candidates when the country holds nationwide elections next year for local posts, which could of course deal a blow to the government and Zuma.
Cosatu’s relationship with the ANC was forged in the struggle against apartheid and was instrumental in Zuma’s rise to power in a country with virtual one-party rule by the ANC.
In order to win back supporters, Zuma may try to develop new left-leaning economic policies, or heed the calls of Cosatu, which wants to weaken the rand and nationalise some mines in a country that is the world’s fourth-largest gold producer.
A turn to the left will likely alienate investors who already see South Africa’s strict labour laws and more expensive worker costs as a making the country a less lucrative place for direct investment compared to other emerging economies.
But analysts do not expect Zuma, known for policy dithering, to come up with any bold reforms that favour either business or his allies on the left.
“Zuma is becoming a disappointment to many of his supporters but Cosatu and people expected too much. He is an amenable guy who tells people what they want to hear even if he knows that it cannot be delivered,” one of the ANC’s top officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Youth troubles
Zuma also faces pressure on the budget front.
The settlement to end the state workers’ strike is expected to swell state spending by up to 1% to 2%, forcing the government to find more funds just as it struggles to bring down the deficit from 6,7% of GDP.
Senior ANC officials and even Zuma’s former backers in the party’s youth league have warned him that he cannot count on their support for a second term.
Zuma is also at odds with the youth league over its demand to nationalise mines.
The president’s polygamy and fathering children out of wedlock have tarnished his image, causing strains in the alliance and cutting into public support.
Zuma may be seen as a liability to the party but ANC officials and alliance partners do not expect him to suffer the same fate as former president Thabo Mbeki, who was forced out of office nine months before his term ended.
Mbeki lost a key confidence vote at a similar ANC decision-making session, triggering a chain of events that eventually caused him to step down in 2008.
“Recalling Mbeki ripped the ANC’s intellectual capacity to shreds … and has laid seeds of conflict and factionalism that will still be plaguing the ANC in 50 years time,” political analyst Nic Borain wrote in his blog. – Reuters