The difference between investing R100 000 at the peak versus the bottom of the market can mean the difference between an average return of 11,5% compared to 15,5% over the long term — and those few percentages make an enormous difference to the lump sum you have at retirement.
Figures provided by Craig Pheiffer of Absa Investments show that R100 000 invested at the peak of the market in April 1969 would be worth over R9 million today — an average return of 11,7%.
If you had perfectly timed the market and invested two years later when the bottom had fallen out of the market in October 1971, that R100 000 would be worth a whopping R24 million — an average return of 15,4%. (see table below)
Looking at shorter term market movements, someone who had invested R100 000 at the peak in May 2008 would still be sitting in the red with their investment worth around R90 000.
By comparison an astute investor who went into the market less than a year later in February 2009 would have already grown their R100 000 into R155 000 — a massive 50% return per year in just over 18 months.
Unfortunately crystal balls are hard to come by so timing the top and bottom of the markets is practically impossible. We also have to contend with human nature which drives investors to invest based on fear and greed rather than rational analysis .
But what the figures also show us is that even if you had picked the worst possible time to invest, your returns would still be inflation beating. Over the 41 years since April 1969, inflation averaged around 10%, this included the hyperinflation period during the 1980’s. The market returns beat this return by around 1.7% a year, which supports the well- known argument that equity markets over the long-term are one of the best ways to protect against the ravishes of inflation.
What we can also learn from these figures is that the price that we buy our shares at does matter, but also that markets recover very quickly. Many people have already missed out on the massive recovery since 2009 and are now start wondering if it is worth investing at all.
The decision should not be driven by greed, yes a 50% is fantastic but a 13% return over 36 years also delivers great returns. That is the return an investor would have made if they bought at the peak of the market in 1974, just three years after the market bottomed in 1971.
Today that R100 000 would be worth R9.5 million or a return of CPI +3.5% – a return most people would be satisfied with from a retirement fund.
So do you invest your R100 000 today? What value based fund managers tell us is not to try and second guess the markets as to when the next market correction will come, but to look at what we are paying for those shares.
If they are fairly priced and we have another correction, the long-term returns should still be reasonable — this was the case in 1974 where the index was still sitting below the highs of 1969.
What we need to be asking now is not when the next crash will come, but whether we are paying too much for the companies we are buying.
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