Australia’s Prime Minister Julia Gillard tightened her grip on power on Thursday when an opposition lawmaker suddenly defected to become speaker, boosting her chances of surviving a full term in office and reducing reliance on independent MPs to pass laws.
Before the surprise move in a dramatic last day of Parliament for 2011, Gillard’s minority government has clung on to power by a single seat, reliant on independents and greens for support.
That has been just enough for the government to push through major policies but at constant risk of collapse if her unpopular Labour Party was forced to face a by-election.
“It means they are more likely to get their policies through more easily,” said Michael Workman, a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank.
“And it’s more likely the government will get through the full term, which lessens political uncertainty at the margin,” he said.
Disaffected opposition
Gillard’s sudden change of fortune came when speaker Harry Jenkins announced his resignation from the position so he could sit and vote with Labour Party colleagues. The speaker does not vote in Parliament unless a vote is tied.
Parliament then elected disaffected opposition Liberal Party MP Peter Slipper as speaker, who said he would quit his party. It means Gillard’s minority government gains one vote in Parliament and the opposition loses one vote. In effect, her majority rises to three from one.
Slipper’s defection, which media described as a “stunning coup for Labour”, means Gillard’s government is more likely to run its full term with elections due in late 2013.
Gillard’s government has been struggling in opinion polls since the August 2010 dead heat elections although her poll rating has improved marginally in the past month.
Poll ratings
Successful state visits by Britain’s Queen Elizabeth, who is also Queen of Australia, and by US President Barack Obama, are expected to bolster her poll ratings.
Despite the wafer-thin majority and low ratings in opinion polls, Gillard’s Labour has successfully pushed landmark carbon price laws and plans for a 30% tax on coal and iron more mines through the lower House of Parliament.
The change may have come in the nick of time. One Labour Party MP, Craig Thompson, is being investigated by police over the use of his union credit card to pay for prostitutes. If charged and convicted, he could be forced from Parliament.
It also means Gillard will have some flexibility on her next major policy challenge — to crack down on problem gambling and poker machines. Under a deal to retain support from independent Andrew Wilkie, she promised to introduce limits on poker machines gambling, but the policy is widely unpopular.
Contentious deal
Wilkie said if anything, chances of passing the gambling reforms have improved with the extra quote.
The extra numbers mean Labour could also win lower house support for a contentious deal with Malaysia on asylum seekers. But those laws could face defeat in the upper house Senate, where the government would still need support from greens or opposition lawmakers to pass its bills.
Gillard denied the upheaval had been a political plot and said she had had less than two hours’ notice that Jenkins would quit. She also praised Slipper who faced taunts from former colleagues in the opposition, who shouted “hang your head in shame” as he was led to the presiding chair.
Slipper was already unpopular in his party for having earlier accepted the role of deputy speaker. He has been battling to avoid being dumped by his own party ahead of the next election and said he would now quit his party membership to be independent. — Reuters